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- I think it's time to get the bunny out again!
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- BPT MA deluxe moving average indicator
- Hapyy Fibonacci Day, 5/8/13
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- Here are the employment numbers, positive report
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- ▼ May (19)
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Sunday, May 19, 2013
Anyway back to what I was going to discuss: As you know I've been showing examples of the BPT MA Deluxe moving average indicator and how it can be useful as a trending indicator on certain settings. Here's an example of it on the SPY 60 min system and how I am going to add it to the 60 min SPY system and other systems to hold trades for longer periods of time. Currently the SPY 60 min system already has excellent stats of 98% winning trades and a 167 profit factor (see the stats below), however this video shows a few examples how I'm planning to add this indicator to make it better. If this works, I'll be sharing the new code and system workspaces with you. I also plan to test this on my 5 min ES system and the daily systems
**Click Here** to watch the video
also note: the attached system statistcs do NOT include the addition of the BPT MA Deluxe, I will show new statistics once I am able to code this
**Click here** to view the system statistics (does not include the BPT MA Deleuxe yet
Thursday, May 16, 2013
Wednesday, May 15, 2013
The 'Energizer Bunny' market is up again today making new highs, the 'sheep' just can't buy this market fast enough I guess!
Anyway here's a 60 min chart of the S&P 500, as you can see it has tagged the upper trendline of this channel, this is a resistance point and aggressive traders could short that with a very tight stop. Again the trend is very strong therefore I would consider this only for a trade and only for aggressive traders.
Tuesday, May 14, 2013
Good morning everyone, as you know the market is up once again, the masses can't seem to buy this market fast enough LOL. Again if you listened to my newsletter last night you heard my rant/speech about playing the trend vs being an ultra bear obsessed with picking tops - eventually you will be right but you will be broke before you catch that elusive top!
Anyway here's a couple charts from my newsletter post last night:
First a 60 min chart of the SPX, as you know it's in a sold uptrend channel and last night I showed the small ascending triangle pattern inside the channel (drawn in black), this pattern is 12 points in height and measures to a target of 1647 (12 + 1635). The second chart shows the 5 min bull flag chart which I also showed last night and has basically met its price target.
This move up is forming some negative divergence on the 60 min SPX chart via the MACD and RSI and is something to monitor, but otherwise the trend is strong.
We have had tons of long ideas posted on our Paid Website
Monday, May 13, 2013
Thursday, May 9, 2013
The market finally pulled back some today, early this week I listed the upper trendlines of the channel patterns on the daily SPX charts as a target and today the SPX perfectly tagged those resistance trendlines and reversed off them.
Here's the BPT MA deluxe MA, which is really just a fancy name for a moving average set that has tons and tons of settings. It allows you to plot two MA's like at 20 and 50 or 50, 200 or whatever, and it also has 8 different moving average types that you can choose from (Simple, Exponential, Weighted, Triangle, Adaptive, Hull Weighted, Hull Expontial, and Hull Modified). we can also plot just one MA and turn off the second (which is what I show in the sample charts). It also slows the color of the slope of the MA (green when the slope is up and red when the slope is negative).
The last custom setting it has is a whipsaw factor. You've all seen my use the BPT confirmation method where you need a second candle to confirm the first candle of an indicator change, I've shown this with various moving averages, MACD crosses, RSI above or below 50%, stochastics above or below 50%. However I added a whipsaw confirmation method to this MA that only allows the slope to change color if it is confirmed by a second color - this turns it into more of a trending indicator. I've attached some images below of daily and monthly S&P 500 charts. The setting that I'm using is a 34 length exponential modified MA (our #8 MA) with the whipsaw confirmation turned on, as you can see it's done a great job at catching most of the trends.
For BPT members who have Tradestation I'm going to give you this indicator and a workspace for free so that you can play around with different settings and follow it on your own!
Again note that even though the indicator appears to follow trend very well, I still don't like to use it on its own, I use it as a tool with other things and analysis. For example on the monthly chart, I've found that whenever the RSI is oversold (which is a rare event on monthly charts), it's best to enter a long earlier than wanting for the MA to turn green - I've found taking the first MACD/BB green dot gets you in early (but only doing this when the monthly RSI was in a deeply oversold condition below 30%). The first three charts show monthly S&P 500 charts while the last 2 charts show daily S&P charts, one recent and while from the past.
On the daily charts as you can see it's been green since mid November so has caught this whole move.
I will be giving this indicator to all BPT members for free who have a Tradestation account. However it's only for BPT members not free trial members (so sign up) if you want it.
Wednesday, May 8, 2013
Here's a 7 1/2 video update I made on GDX and select individual gold/pm stocks and what I"m watching and looking for should they continue to hold up today - remember it's VERY important that they close strong, if they give up a lot of gains by the close then it's just another fake out
CLICK HERE to watch the video
Tuesday, May 7, 2013
Getting closer to the upper trendline of the channel - watching for a low risk short there because a very tight stop can be employed. Trading is NOT about certainties or being right all the time, trading is about taking low risk trades where you see an opportunity where your risk is small and the reward potential is high i.e. at least 1:3 risk/reward ratio. If the SPX fails to stop at that trendline and you are stopped out, no big deal, that's trading, but you don't lose much because you took a short right at resistance.
The S&P 500 is up 7.5 points today, it's getting close, let's see if it can tag it.
Monday, May 6, 2013
I hope everyone had a nice weekend! Otherwise regarding the market, there's nothing new to add at this point, the market is up slightly today - here's the daily S&P 500 chart that I'm monitoring; as you can see it's been in an uptrend channel since November. After last Friday's big pop on the jobs report, I'm watching to see if the SPX can tag the upper trend line (or get close to it) of this channel - that's resistance and would be set up a low risk short because a tight stop could be used - i.e. short resistance when possible vs chasing oversold sell-offs.
Friday, May 3, 2013
Here's a few S&P 500 charts, as you know the market is up huge today on the Jobs data, a fairly broad based rally (except for gold stocks remain pretty horrid). Copper is huge HUGE today, up over 6.7%!!
Regarding the daily S&P 500 charts, one target to the upside may be the upper trendline of the channel, the second chart show an expanding triangle, again the uptrend trendline could be a target should it push higher.
The 3rd chart is our daily pivots chart for the SPX, as we have been stating, if the 1597 pivot was cleared, that would open the door for a quick push up to the next pivot at 1614 and clearly we've had that today. The next pivot beyond 1614 is 1628.
Clearly it's tough to chase longs up there unless for short term trades. It's Friday, I would avoid chasing any new long at this point without a pullback.
unemployment rate: 7.5% (was 7.6% last month)
nonfarm payrolls: +165K
average workweek: down 0.2 hours to 34.4
hourly wages: up 4 cents to $23.87
February and March were revised up a combined 124K. What stands out are the revisions to the past data, that is a positive report and the market obviously likes it!
On the news S&P futures jumped about 12 points and is testing the R2 pivot on ES, and likewise gold is down, Crude oil is up and copper is way up. We'll how it opens and if it strengthens or weakens on the gap.
Thursday, May 2, 2013
Well....the market sure is resilient isn't it! Of course it helps that all the world banks are willing to print endless money/liquidity to help fuel the markets higher, today the ECB lowered rates as expected. Tomorrow we have the US Jobs numbers, let's see how the market reacts to those!
Today the S&P recovered all of yesterday's losses and is once again testing the 1597 highs. Yesterday the SPY and S&P 500 indexes closed right on their 9 EMA's, when a stock or index is still above its short term 9 day EMA, the trend is still up and more follow through to the downside was needed to confirm yesterday's pullback and we didn't get it. The 30 and 60 min bear wedge patterns that I showed yesterday morning played out to their initial targets and have now rebounded back to retest the broken trendline on these wedge patterns - this is a breakpoint, tomorrow is do or die, i.e. either reverse back down or plow through!
enjoy the rest of your day or evening,