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Never-ending SPX / Bond battle at 2007 resist rages on. Aaron ...
Never-ending SPX / Bond battle at 2007 resist rages on.
Tuesday, May 19, 2015
GDX and system comments
Nice pullback today in the metals, however not surprising, GDX basically reversed at the 200 day MA and the upper channel, and as you know we kept hinting to watch the GDX/GLD ratio and it had started to trend day late last week.
The BPGDM Renko system off to a good start, the trade is up 3.6% in one day, but again as I alluded to earlier, the average signal lasts over 60 days, a lot can happen in that time, so even if you followed that chart don't be afraid to lock in some profits on your own if you see a reason to via the charts
The trade triggered yesterday, already up 2.4%. However see the trade stats and history below the chart, notice that the last one was the shortest time at 33 days, the average is 61 days so just put that into perspective, a lot can happen in 30 or 60 days, the trade could be up a lot more or it could be down by the time it closes - if you see a good signal on your normal charts, take some profits
Monday, May 18, 2015
GDX 1 point Renko System
Interestingly I noticed that using a simple 1.00 box size for GDX on a Renko chart has worked well as a simply system since Oct 2013, no losing trades, 80% cumulative gain, non-compounded. However before this date it gets a lot more choppy, which makes sense because I hard set the Renko to a box size of 1 point, so as GDX changes price over time that would need to be adjusted.
I also didn't try to curve fit a Renko size, that's why I simply selected 1.00 vs some odd number.
also - YOU CANNOT use ATR because the past signals change because ATR changes as it's the average of the last 14 days, thus setting it to a hard box size of 1.00 allows all the past signals to be set
Again I'm showing this because it's interesting and may be something to keep an eye on, however Steve and I get our trade signals via normal Technical analysis - but it's still an interesting chart