Tuesday, March 31, 2015

$SPX 60 min, notice how price stopped exactly at the 61.8% Fib, that's a powerful Fib and always areas to watch for - http://bit.ly/1IMw5Au

Monday, March 30, 2015

SPY Pro system 1st scaleout achieved

Hello everyone, the SPY Pro system achieved it's first scaleout!  Remember this system scales out of 20% of it's position after a 1.25% gain in profit.  This leaves 80% of the shares still in a long trade.  So far nice trade from the lows of last week! Had someone simply bought 100 shares of SPY, one would nearly have paid for a 6 month membership.  

For the SPY Pro combined system - since this system combines all three SPY systems (SPY Pro, Ver 2, and RSI 2), you would sell only 8% of your shares and still have 92% of the position.

By the way, the next scaleout comes in at a 2.5% gain for the SPY pro where it will sell another 20%, and of course another 8% for the SPY Pro combined system

$TRAN, weekly chart, shows clear support and resistance - http://bit.ly/1MnI5xY
$TRAN daily chart, monitor trendlines - http://bit.ly/1MnI0Kv
$SPX daily, nice rally so far price has rallied off the uptrend line, if it's a wedge pattern could push up into it - http://bit.ly/1MnECPT

Sunday, March 29, 2015

$SPX, here's a clear weekly view of the SPX, it's been in an uptrend channel since 2011 - http://bit.ly/1F8psas
$SPX monthly long term view, after 6+ years into a bull market, momentum is waining, look at the MACD etc - http://bit.ly/1F8pmQh
$GDX daily, possibly forming a bull wedge with some positive divergence - http://bit.ly/1F8oYkB
$USD, big picture monthly long term view of the dollar - http://bit.ly/1F8oWsU
$USD, US Dollar Daily chart - http://bit.ly/1F8oT0j
$Natgas, natural gas daily chart, broke the triangle pattern to the downside last week - http://bit.ly/1F8oCKN
$WTIC, big picture monthly view of Crude Oil - http://bit.ly/1F8orPF
$coffee, downtrend channel - http://bit.ly/1F8onj2
$CRB, monthly big picture view of the commodities index - http://bit.ly/1F8olrb
$TNX, long term view of 10 year Treasury Yield, in a long term downtrend channel for 29 years - http://bit.ly/1F8of30
- http://bit.ly/1OOksgJ $SPX Weekly

Friday, March 27, 2015

- http://bit.ly/1H56iCt $POST Short Setup
- http://bit.ly/1H561iQ $RXN Short Setup

Thursday, March 26, 2015

- http://bit.ly/1M8rbTV $PAA Long Setup
- http://bit.ly/1M8pVQv $SRS another great trade this week...hope some caught.
- http://bit.ly/1M8pFRz $SOXS great trade this week...booked profits this week.
$UNG, Natural Gas ETF, breaking the lower support of the pattern today - http://bit.ly/1HP6bLj

Wednesday, March 25, 2015

Here's my FREE comprehensive Market Newsletter - TONS OF Charts and Technical Analysis - http://tinyurl.com/owdt938
$WTIC, crude oil, nice bounce again today, however longer term it still has resistance at the 50 day EMA - http://bit.ly/1CQqOY0
$UNG, natural gas ETF, monitor the triangle pattern - http://bit.ly/1CQqLeO
$USD, US Dollar - testing the uptrend line - http://bit.ly/1CQqIQo
$SOX, weekly SOX semiconductors - http://bit.ly/1CQqBEl
$TRAN and $INDU, this chart shows Dow Theory, notice how the two were diverging - http://bit.ly/1CQqitg
$TRAN, Transports - http://bit.ly/1CQqhWh
$SPX daily, shows a potential sloping H&S patern - http://bit.ly/1CQp9BW
$SPX daily chart, shows the same wedge pattern, note the next pivot is way down at 2019 if support is lost - http://bit.ly/1CQp7dd
$WLSH, Wilshire 5000, price closed on the 50 day MA near the uptrend line - http://bit.ly/1CQoXCP

Daily Index Views

$SPX - Chart Link

$WLSH - Chart Link

QQQ - Chart Link

$RUT - Chart Link

$MDR follow up to our long play from weekend, it's up today despite the market sell off, move stops up, now into the gap - http://bit.ly/1CPmeJJ
$OIH, despite the market sell off today, the energy stocks are up nicely like OIH. Remember this was a support long - http://bit.ly/1CPlMem
$SPX daily chart, big sell off today, that rising wedge pattern is looking better now, price is close to 50 MA now - http://bit.ly/1CPlrsn
- http://bit.ly/1CPivvF $SRS Tagged initial target at 9 day EMA
- http://bit.ly/1CPinwf $SOXS Nice move from last night setup

Tran Views

$TRAN - Chart Link

$TRAN - Chart Link

- http://bit.ly/1FFXrKe $IBB testing 20 day
- http://bit.ly/1FFXfuy
- http://bit.ly/1FFXdmd

Tuesday, March 24, 2015

SPX daily

$SPX - Chart Link - with pivots, note the 2085 pivot

$SPX - Chart Link - closed at 9 EMA and 20 SMA

$SPX, 60 min view, here's another scenario to monitor, see comments on chart - http://bit.ly/1N5uAQo
$SPX, 60 min view of SPX, notice that it closed right on the uptrend line from the lows, also note CCI pos div - http://bit.ly/1N5uhVy
$SPX, here's the daily SPX chart with the pivots, the next pivot support is 2085 - http://bit.ly/1N5ubxn
$SPX, Nice pullback today in the makret, SPX closed at the 9 EMA - http://bit.ly/1N5u5FU

SPX 60 min views

$SPX - Chart Link - with Fibs, first off that RSI trendline break occurred the first hr.  Anyway an uptrend line from the lows here to monitor, some div on the CCI

$SPX - Chart Link - another view shows how a RS could form of a H&S pattern, notice we closed right on that uptrend line.  However under this scenario notice the neckline would be slanted up, so another thing that could occur if there as some morning weakness (but not too much) that would allow the neckline to be flat vs slopped up, then bounce to for a RS.

again too much sell off would negate it and I'm simply throwing out things to monitor

$MDR, nice breakout from this pattern! Remember per my post yesterday, I really liked this one, still the open gap - http://bit.ly/1y19sSC

Monday, March 23, 2015

$MDR - nice long idea, pennant triangle and an open gap to fill above - http://bit.ly/1ELtLbx
$OAS, oil stock, looks weak, could lose shelf support - http://bit.ly/1ELtGVf
$SOL, nice basing pattern, one to monitor for a long trade - http://bit.ly/1ELtDJc
$DBA agriculture ETF, keep an eye on this sector, had a divergent low, perhaps drought in California will benefit this - http://bit.ly/1ELtuW6
$COPPER, wow huge rally in copper today! Followed through on that flag breakout from last Friday - http://bit.ly/1ELtplj
Nice comparision chart of the US Dollar vs the CRB Commodities Index, notice the Perfect Inverse Relationship - http://bit.ly/1ELti9c
$USD, another nice pullback in the US Dollar, it's now testing the parabolic uptrend line - http://bit.ly/1ELte9v
$SOX, this weekly chart of the Semiconducators concerns me, looks like a rising wedge - http://bit.ly/1ELt6qF
$IBB, The Biotech Sector finally pulled back today, was quite overdue - http://bit.ly/1ELt0PU

Copper had a big day and follow through from Friday

$COPPER - Chart Link - big follow through from Friday's gain

JJC - Chart Link - ETF

$COPPER - Chart Link

FCX - Chart Link - long idea we've had on the list - as expected with the symmetry break it made a higher low, continue to monitor this one going forward

SCCO - Chart Link - there's not a lot of copper stocks, most are in Canada, here's a couple to monitor should they follow suit

CUM.TO - Chart Link

SPX Intraday Views

$SPX - Chart Link

$SPX - Chart Link

$SPX - Chart Link

Range bound action..

Friday, March 20, 2015

$COMPQ, Nasdaq Monthly chart - that Mar 2000 high is too close now to test it - http://bit.ly/1MQR3k7
$GDX 60 min, follow up to the bottoming triangle pattern, nice move so far, note the Fibs and open gap above - http://bit.ly/1DFmk8e
$SPX 60 min, the bullish case is that we are in some kind of wave 3 of 3 - http://bit.ly/1DFm88P
$UUP US Dollar ETF, remember on Monday I said to look for a light volume bounce shorting opportuity, got that yester - http://bit.ly/1LzQ2Qh

Thursday, March 19, 2015

$USD, the US Dollar is still holding the parabolic uptrend (pink line) for now and holding the 20 day MA - http://bit.ly/1EzqJar
$AGEN biotech, hot sector latey, triangle forming, potential long - http://bit.ly/1x7iYbz
$CYTK Biotech sector hot laterly, bull pennant forming - http://bit.ly/1x7iIcE
$IMNP long idea of ours from last night, nice breakout on good volume - http://bit.ly/1x7izpC
$GOLD 240 min chart, keep an eye on this downtrend channel - http://bit.ly/1x7irq5
$UNG Natural Gas ETF - http://bit.ly/1x7iges
$WLSH Wilshire 5000 chart, potential rising wedge - http://bit.ly/1x7hHRK

IMNP follow up

IMNP - Chart Link  trade idea from last night, nice follow through on that volume move yesterday 

Wednesday, March 18, 2015

Here's our Market Newsletter

Hello everyone, as you know it was a volatile reversal up day for the market with the FOMC.  Here's my comprehensive newsletter review of the market and trade ideas

CLICK HERE to view the Newsletter

Matthew Frailey
Here's My Free Newsletter - VERY comprehensive look at the market - http://tinyurl.com/kdscu96
$WLL, long idea of ours breaking out today - http://bit.ly/1bgBmoW
$PVA follow up, long setup of ours that broke out today - http://bit.ly/1bgBipc
$DBA Agriculture ETF, one to monitor for a long, positive divergence - http://bit.ly/1bgBggR
$OIH Oil Services ETF, looks like a low risk long off support, with a stop at the lows - http://bit.ly/1bgBapI
$Natgas breaking out of small triangle - http://bit.ly/1bgBaWu
$GASO, gasoline rallied up uptrend line - http://bit.ly/1bgB7tV
50 min chart of $UUP, Dollar ETF, look to now short a light volume bounce for a low risk trade - http://bit.ly/1bgB6pV
Monthly View of US Dollar, pulling back from measured move, however long term uptrend - http://bit.ly/1bgB2GA
$USD nice pullback today though still in long tern uptrend for now, been parabolic move up since last summer - http://bit.ly/1bgAW1L
$SPX Daily chart - huge reveral after the FOMC, however notice the $SPX rallied off support last week - http://bit.ly/1bgARLj
$OIH had a nice rally off support, stop could go below today's low, most asset classes rallied after the FED - http://bit.ly/1Cwvu6X
SPX daily chart, rallied off support trendline last week, even today's morning low found support at the 50 day MA - http://bit.ly/1HZZUgD
$SPX 60 min chart, obviously FED was cataylist for move, however this inverse H&S look was shown last night - http://bit.ly/1HZZmXX
- http://bit.ly/1HZY1As
The 60 min bear flag on the SPX that I tweeted out yesteday is playing out this morning - http://bit.ly/1AESV7M
- http://bit.ly/1HZr7zR $SPX Bear Flag Playing Out This Morning

Tuesday, March 17, 2015

ERI, nice reversal on high volume off the 20 day MA, this company has postiive news coming soon keep an eye on it - http://bit.ly/1HYOHNh
US Dollar - http://bit.ly/1HYODx7
60 min view of SPX, resistance is in light blue just above, very short term could be a bear flag - http://bit.ly/1HYOvh4
Daily SPX chart with piviots, bounced off support trendline last week, close just below pivot today - http://bit.ly/1HYOh9N

As a visual confirmation, the SPY Pro and Ver 2 ...

As a visual confirmation, the SPY Pro and Ver 2 systems closed out their trades on the market open and went to cash.  All three systems closed out profitable trades albeit the profit was tiny for the SPY Pro, however the other two with their second entries made nice profits.

Also just to be clear for those of you who might be new or new to the systems - The action of the SPY systems exiting their long positions and going to cash should NOT be construed as a sell or short signal for the market!  Do not short the market based on the SPY systems going to cash.  Remember the goal of the SPY systems is to simply identify a trade situation, get in and get out, that's it.  These are not trend following systems, they are reversion to mean systems that attempt to buy pullbacks in uptrends or short rallies in downtrends - get in and get out.  

The system has very specific short signals, which are not in effect at this time.

SPX 120 Minute

$SPX - Chart Link

Possible backtest of trendline? Keep an open mind and respect your triggers.  Internal readings (breadth) are solidly in bears camp now...continue to monitor. 

SPX Intraday Views

$SPX - Chart Link

$SPX - Chart Link

$SPX - Chart Link

Filled open gap yesterday which had the index quite overbought and today pulling back (Matt pointed out bear flag below)

Monday, March 16, 2015

PVA nice setup to monitor, bull pennant pattern - http://bit.ly/1GOM4fI
AMPE turned into one heck of a trade for us from last week! - http://bit.ly/1GOLUFk
US Dollar, black candle some neg div via RSIs - http://bit.ly/1GOL6jH
Nice trade from our SPY RSI 2 mechanical System today - http://bit.ly/1GOKTgd

Sunday, March 15, 2015

Dollar Views

$USD - Chart Link

$USD - Chart Link

$USD - Chart Link

$USD - Chart Link

Notice the inverse relationship between the USD and CRB since last July.  

German DAX Daily

$DAX - Chart Link 

Heck of a run to start 2015...clearly money moved in ahead of the ECB QE. 

Friday, March 13, 2015


$SPX - Chart Link

Internals still very weak..

Weekly ETF systems - example

So here's an interesting example to point out:  As I sad I have a basket of these weekly ETF systems, I run two different systems on them, one reversion to mean and one trend following or breakoutt - so each ETF has two systems running on it on two different charts, so if there are 10 ETF's, there would be 20 charts, with 10 of them running the RVM system and 10 of them running the trend following system.  At times you will get both systems long or short, or you can get cases when one is short and one is long.

Here's an example on XLE, the energy ETF:

The first chart shows XLE running the RVM system, notice that it closed out a profitable long trade just over 3 weeks ago, however now it's going to go back long today at the close, see the green indicator bar at the bottom of the chart.

The second chart shows XLE running the trend following system, notice that it's already short, it went short at 76.58 on Monday, so it's up nicely. 

Anyway what's going to happen when the RVM system goes long today at the close is that the short profit will have been locked in and you will have a 'Net Zero' position since they both cancel each other out.  Should the market continue selling off and XLE goes to new lows, it cancels the early RVL long trade, or vice versa should XLE rally next week.

anyway just showing an example of what will happen at times once I release these systems, you will have trades that are both long and short at the same time

always keep an eye on those pivots on ES, the ...

always keep an eye on those pivots on ES, the ES trades around them

- http://bit.ly/1x1FRgT

SPX 1 and 5 min

$SPX - Chart Link - unable to break symmetry thus far on any bounce

$SPX - Chart Link - 5 min still quite ugly, some RSI div but not really on MACD

Thursday, March 12, 2015

SPX Daily View

$SPX - Chart Link

Bounced off trendline and moved up to 50 day MA...on pullbacks would prefer to see it hold 50% of today's range to suggest continued upside momentum. 

SPX Intraday Views

$SPX - Chart Link

$SPX - Chart Link

$SPX - Chart Link

$SPX - Chart Link

- http://bit.ly/1AhSJet

Wednesday, March 11, 2015

Our Most recent newsletter

Hello everyone, here's our latest newsletter, this one is longer than normal because along with my general market analysis, I also discuss some new mechanical systems, educational examples, as well as trade ideas. 

CLICK HERE to view the Newsletter.

Also please consider taking advantage of the 20% Sale we have going on right now.

Matthew Frailey

GDX comments

GDXJ - Chart Link - besides the positive divergence and symmetry break on the intra day charts, these charts were setup via the daily charts via a trigger taking back 50% of the candle range a a trigger for those who have watched the tutorials.

GDX - Chart Link

GDX - Chart Link

The Weekly ETF systems have done great

They sold out of their long positions 2 - 3 weeks ago, most didn't short though XLV is in an exhaustion short