Monday, July 29, 2013

Here\'s our recent newsletters and a 25% Coupon!!

Hello everyone, I hope you had a nice weekend!

Here's our two weekend newsletters, enjoy.  Also please consider taking advantage of our 25% off coupon to our 6 month membership!

- Commodity Newsletter July 29th, 2013

- General Market Newsletter July 29th, 2013

Monday, July 22, 2013

Gold Stocks may have put in a decent bottom - let\'s take a look at the charts

Gold stocks have rallied off their June lows and may have finally put in a decent bottom after being the worst sector in the stock market for a year.  

The first chart shows a weekly chart of NEM, take a look a the RSI indicator at the top, notice how over the last 18 years it has rarely been oversold, and on the last low the RSI actually had positive divergence, which was something we haven't seen in 20 years.  Also notice the uptrend line from the 2001 lows, NEM is attempting to bounce off this area.  Now watch for a MACD cross bullish confirmation, it's now very close.  The send chart is another weekly chart while the 3rd is a daily chart showing a well-defined channel.

Chart number 4 shows a monthly chart of the XAU index - notice the long term trendline and RSI

Charts number 5 and 6 show weekly charts of the HUI Gold Bugs Index, notice the long term trendlines and RSI indicator.  The MACD also has an early bullish cross - the last time this occurred in 2008, the it did not cross back down until 2010

Sunday, July 21, 2013

Here's our VERY comprehensive weekend newsletters

I hope everyone had a new weekend!

Here's our two very comprehensive weekend newsletters

1. General Market Weekend Newsletter

2. Commodity Weekend Newsletter

Thursday, July 18, 2013

BPT MA follow up

So far so good - about 100 points gained on the 60 min SPX chart since the BPT MA flipped to green on 6/25, again don't expect it to be that good all the time - as we state before, this indicator catches trends well, and the market has trended - it's chop situations where it can whipsaw.

Otherwise notice the two low risk buy's on July 2nd and July 16th on the pullback - where you see it change to blue

Monday, July 15, 2013

Observation -SPX had 8 up candles in a row

As noted, the SPX has had 8 up candles in a row that all closed higher than they opened and higher than the previous day.  I looked back 20 years and I could only find one other instance of this from 2003 and the next day was a down day.  I found quite a few instances where 6 and 7 up candles where formed in a row, but only one other 8 day example.

Either way, very short term the market is getting stretched and due for a reversion to mean quick pullback even if it's only for one day

Sunday, July 14, 2013

BPT MA Deluxe coming for Ninja Trader

FYI - we are getting pretty close to converting the BPT MA Deluxe Indicator to Ninja Trader - probably early this week, I'll keep you posted - the charts here of course are not from Ninja Trader, they are from Tradestaion, again I'll follow up when we have something

Tuesday, July 9, 2013

Here\'s Our latest Newsletter

Hello everyone, regarding the recent market action, here's our latest comprehensive newsletter

CLICK HERE To see the Newsletter

Matthew Frailey

Monday, July 8, 2013

Long Term Mechanical System for SPX additional

I've completed the states if you shorted vs going to cash, here they are and a couple chart examples - system goes up to 400 times the original investment vs 168 via non short, that's just crazy!  $100K invested into the S&P 500 from Nov 1962 until present would have turned into $2.6 million, whereas that same $100K would have turned into $40 million via this system.

Obviously the current long from 3/31/09 is still open, so we'll see where this trade ends, at 1559 days into the trade from 3/31/09, it's still still been in this trade less than the average 1702 days that the system remained in long trades in the past.  

Average time in long trade is 1702 days, average time in short trade is 396 days

Sunday, July 7, 2013

Here's a new long term 401K system using the BPT MA and other indcators

Here's a new long term 401K system, which uses a monthly chart along with the BPT MA Deluxe as well as other indicators and rules to catch long term trends in the market, while keeping you out of bear markets - it destroys buy and hold.  

CLICK HERE to watch a short 5 min video overview

Obviously system system is what I call a paint dry system because it is designed to stay in uptrend bull markets for as long as possible, but also stay out of bear markets, so it is not a system that most of you would be interested in, however family or friends who are not traders it would be ideal for.

For example my neighbor who seemingly ever week tells me about how his managed IRA account at AG Edwards has grown so much this year, I constantly tell him, that's great Pat, but you are only doing well because your broker simply has you invested in the market, when the market enters a bear market in the future he won't get you out, you will ride it all the way down - this system allows you to stay in the bull markets for years, but be out for bear markets so that you can buy back in at much lower prices, thus beating 99% of the masses.

As you can see the average trade length is about 1700 days! The average time the system is in cash or money market is about 400 days (these are the bear market periods).  I currently have the system as long only because with the clientele in mind like my neighbor or other friends who have 401K plans tied to the market, they are not allowed to short or would not short or don't even know what a short is, that's why I simply have the system exit the market and go to a cash money market fund where interest can be gained whenever an exit signal is generated.  

The statistics below show the returns, however if you would like I can also show the stats assuming that you shorted vs going to a money market fund- however I did include interest that would be gained while in a money market cash fund by looking at historical rates for the time periods where the system was out of the market.  Also regarding the BPT MA Deluxe indicator - as I show here, while it's a great indicator, as I've been telling all of you, it's MUCH better to use it as a tool with other indicators and analysis, vs trying to use it by itself. 

I also include the various indicators and rules to the system as well as chart examples.  I will eventually place this on the website in the long term tools and provide a Tradestation workspace