Thursday, September 27, 2012

Uncle Ben Bernanke as a Baby LOL

Uncle Ben Bernanke as a Baby LOL

Wednesday, September 26, 2012

My Comprehensive Market Newsletter

Hello everyone, the market has finally had a nice pullback, here's my comprehensive market newsletter which conveys my thoughts.  I consider this as a pullback in an uptrend for now that will soon be bought.  

In the newsletter I provide my analysis for the market, and I also show some compelling market statistics showing the popular 2 RSI indicator.  I also cover commodities, precious metals, and at the end provide you with a list of trade ideas

**Click HERE to view the Newsletter

thanks and please pass this free site along to your friends/family

Matthew Frailey

Moon cycle working again

$SPX - Chart Link - post 2 weeks ago, once again the Moon cycle played out.  

The full moon is on the 29th, again +/- a day or so, perhaps this will provide a low.

A lot of people sort of scoff or laugh at the Moon cycle, but what's the difference in having trusting Fibonacci or this? 

SPY weekly options and selling puts and calls

I like to sell weekly naked alls and puts to generate cash each week, generally I do this late Wed at the earliest and I'll do them heavy on Thursday and Friday (If I can still get premiums).  Obviously I try to sell the options where I think there is very little chance at SPY closing within those strike prices by Friday's close.

This week after the sell off I'm interested in selling some Puts (not calls), which expire on Friday.  Today SPY closed at $143.29, and here's a list of option prices that expire on Friday.  As you look at the Puts, the 138 strike price is selling for 6 - 8 cents, that's $5.5 dollars lower or about 55 SPX points, which I see as unlikely.  If I sell 100 of those puts for 7 cents, that's 700 dollars that I get to keep as long as SPY doesn't close at or below $138 by Friday's close.  Intra day today at the lows the premiums were of course higher. The 139's and 140's also interest me.  I did a few today but will be looking to sell more tomorrow.  

Realize that this takes up a lot of margin and there's risk (selling naked options).  I do this week after week to generate case on my cash holdings - but again it takes some cash to do this, you can only sell about 75 options per 100K, don't expect to do this if you are trading with a $25K account, or an IRA or retirement account.  Since I never have all my money in the market at one time, I do this each week to generate some cash - it's not a lot but better than bank interest, about 25% a year or so. 

I've also attached a SPY daily chart, as you can see there should be some strong support just below at the trendlines

Tuesday, September 25, 2012

SPX daily RSI 2 statistics and comments

The RSI 2 on the daily SPX closed at 1.49%.  I ran some numbers and here are the statistics:

This has occurred only 13 times since 1988 or 24 years while price was above the 162 day MA.  If you went long the SPX when RSI 2 closed below 1.5% and sold when price closed back over the 8 day SMA, 100% of the trades were winners, the largest intra day draw down was 2.8% in 1999.  For the statistics, each trade was taken with $10,000 to make conversion to percent gain/loss easy - i.e. multiples of 10.

Most trades had some draw downs, which means price generally went lower for a short time before finally bouncing (see the second graphic via the Runup - Rundown column). The dollar gain/loss is of course the same as % gain loss since each trade was $10K.

the average time in the trades was about 7 days.  

Thursday, September 20, 2012

Thursday Sept 20th 2012 Comprehensive Newsletter

Please note that I also included some educational examples in tonight's newsletter, so make sure to review!


You can view the newsletter here.


Monday, September 17, 2012

Weekend Commodity Newsletter

As you know, the precious metals area has had a heck of a rally since Aug, here's my comprehensive weekend commodity newsletter - please take a look and also consider purchasing a membership to Breakpoint

Wekend Commodity and Precious Metals FREE Newsletter


Sunday, September 16, 2012

ERX and XLE systems comments

With the BPENER closing at 97.78% on Friday, the ERX / XLE system that I've been working on would have closed out on Friday, or close out on Monday for a 65% gain or a 557% total since 2009.  One of my rules is to sell any longs when the BPENER is above 97%, or you could close the trade on a close below the 9 EMA.

Otherwise I'm still not ready to release this system as there are a few other rules and things that I would like to work on - I'm a perfectionist, and plus the general work on the website and my daughter takes up most of my time.

Thursday, September 13, 2012

Bernanke - super pump

Bernanke provided the 'Crack' for the market today throwing everything including the kitchen sink at it which caused the market and especially precious metals to surge today

Essentially the Fed and ECB are like drug dealers selling crack, and the market is the drug addict who is hopelessly addicted to it.

Wednesday, September 12, 2012

Wednesday Sept 12th, 2012 Newsletter

Here's my comprehensive Market Newsletter Sept 12th

CLICK Here to view the newsletter


Long Ideas that I'm watching

Some trade ideas that I'm watching

Monday, September 10, 2012

A few short ideas

here's a few short idea's that have caught my interest

SPG - Chart Link - all the MA's have come together and breaking support, hoping for some follow through

HSY - Chart Link - testing the uptrend line and 50 MA with negative divergence

ROST - Chart Link - lost support today, would love a light volume bounce

IVR - Chart Link

LL - Chart Link - still strong, but it's nose bleed territory now, short term support is the 9 EMA

TSO - Chart Link

Sunday, September 9, 2012

Commodity Weekend Precious Metals Newsletter 9/9/12

Here's my weekend commodity newsletter, this one like last week's has a large focus on precious metals.

You can view the newsletter here


Wednesday, September 5, 2012

Most recent Newsletter

Here's our most recent comprehensive newsletter covering the general market, commodities and precious metals, and trade ideas in great detail

Click Here to see the Newsletter