Monday, December 15, 2014

Monday Dec 15th Market Newsletter and end of year special!

Hello everyone, I hope all is well, here's my free market newsletter!  By the way, as you know last week when I emailed you my free Wednesday newsletter, I accidentally sent you a bad URL, many of you wrote in to let me know  Anyway this URL works just fine. The market has had a nice sell off since last week Monday when I sent out my newsletter warning you about the market. Click the newsletter below to see my thoughts now:

CLICK HERE to View the Newsletter.

also see our end of year sale below:


End of Year Sale 25% Off 6 month membership!

Also it's now Dec 15th, and I'm having an end of year sale for Breakpoint Trades.  Here's a coupon code for 25% off our 6 month membership!  354FD7FE 

Just enter the coupon code above on the payment form when you sign up. This ONLY works for our 6 month membership!  

Remember besides our newsletters we have powerful mechanical systems that come with membership such as our SPY Professional System, which has an amazing 96% winning trades and closed out a nice winning trade last week!  CLICK HERE to read about this system

We have powerful trending indicators like our BPT MA Deluxe, which has been awesome at catching trends - just look at these returns CLICK HERE

So take this opportunity to signup and use this coupon for 25% off!

hope to see you as a member!

Matthew Frailey

Monday, December 8, 2014

Monday Dec 8th Newsletter - caution in order for the market

Hello everyone, here's my free market newsletter.  We feel that caution is now in order pertaining to the market.

CLICK HERE to view the Newsletter

Monday, December 1, 2014

Crude Oil bounced off the trendline from 1998

$WTIC - Chart Link - hello everyone, here's a followup to my weekend newsletters where I discussed crude oil.  Today crude oil had the largest bounce in over 2 years, however that's coming off the largest selloff from last week in years.  Anyway as you can see from my monthly and weekly charts, crude oil bounced off the uptrend support line from 1998 that I had in place

$WTIC - Chart Link

Sunday, November 30, 2014

Free Market Newsletters for Sunday Nov 30th, 2014

Hello everyone, first off I hope you all had a nice Thanksgiving and a nice weekend so far. Here's my free market newsletters for the weekend.  Please note that this time instead of just a simple audio overlay, I included a lot of written text to help you focus on the charts of importance, hopefully this helps you quite a bit!

CLICK HERE for the Commodity Newsletter

CLICK HERE to the General Market Newsletter (SPX, Indexes)

enjoy the rest of your weekend!

Matthew Frailey

Thursday, November 20, 2014

Exhaustion Trade Statistics - rare setup and condition

Hello everyone, here's an important and rare technical event that is setting up on the market, I call it an exhaustion trade.  Click the newsletter link below to read more about it.  This is a condition that has only occurred 4 times in the last 50 years.

You can view the Newsletter Here click here.

enjoy the rest of your day,

Matthew Frailey

Exhaustion Statistics follow up

Hello everyone, here's a follow up to the exhaustion trade statistics:  Today is the 24th consecutive close above the 8 day SMA along with %K over 88%.  Over the last 50 years, this condition has only occurred 4 times, max draw down on $100,000 is only -$393! Target is a close back below the 8 day SMA over the next 4 - 5 days

Condition: On the SPX cash, price closes above the 8 day SMA for 24 consecutive days along with a 10 length %R indicator also closing above 88%.  

The key is that the SPX needs to close up for today with the %R staying over 88%, obviously we'll have to see how it looks near the close

the images below, the first one shows the current SPX chart, the second shows the Tradestation Statistics, the 3rd shows you the trade list, the last 4 charts show you every trade on the chart at that time, 2012, 2006, 1998, 1986, interesting thing to note is that note one of those instances was a major top, just a quick pullback then prices moved higher

Sunday, November 16, 2014

Free Newsletters on the General Market and Commodities

Hello All, I hope you had a nice weekend! Here's my two free comprehensive weekend newsletters

- CLICK HERE to view the Commodity Newsletter - quite a few trade ideas here: crude oil, natural gas, uranium, and precious metal gold stocks 

- CLICK HERE for the General Market Newsletter - quick discussion on the general stock market, BPT MA Deluxe trending indicator, and SPY Pro system.  Have a great week!

Matthew Frailey

Tuesday, November 11, 2014

SPX daily at resistance

$SPX - Chart Link - here's a daily chart of the S&P 500. As you know the market has had one hell of a rally of the Oct lows in a straight up V rally - in fact this is the fastest rally in terms of percentage gained over time in history.  Clearly the market will need to rest soon, perhaps this trendline will offer some resistance

Sunday, November 2, 2014

Free Breakpoint Trades Market Newsletters

Hello everyone, I hope you enjoyed your weekend, and October is finally over, what a wild month! Here's my free weekend newsletters.  

CLICK HERE for the Commodities Newsletter

CLICK HERE for the General Market Analysis Newsletter

enjoy the rest of your week!


BPT MA Deluxe using 60 min chart to get better prices follow up

Hello guys, last weekend as you know I showed you some examples how when the daily BPT MA Deluxe gives a trade signal on the daily SPX chart, that one could zoom down to a 60 min chart to get better prices if the 5 and 14 RSI's were overbought (for longs) or oversold (for shorts), and you simply wait until the next day when these RSI's recycle. This of course is just common sense and could be improved upon a lot, however this exercise is to get you out of the 'robot mode' about taking the daily charts without looking at your intra day charts and other factors.  

The first image shows you two tables, the one on the left shows you the trade signals based only on the daily chart. The table to the right shows you the dates and prices if you used a 60 min chart to get better prices a day later if the RSI's were overbought or oversold at the time of the daily signals. If you look at the table, not every signal is better or different, in fact many of them do not change the daily signal (if RSI was not at extreme levels on the 60 min chart at the time, I simply take the daily signal as is).  For the columns, compare the dates, the # of days, and points better,and % Gain columns.  

The difference you will see is that some of the trade signals you are able to get 10 - 17 points better prices on the SPX. Also you will note that the average trade time jumps from 43 to 46 days, which is just common sense since you are typically waiting a day or so longer using the 60 min.

- The second image below shows you the daily SPX with BPT MA Deluxe signals noted (non - 60 min modified)

- The 3rd image below shows you the Current SPX with BPT MA Deluxe and the new signals based on 60 min

- The 4th image shows you a 60 min chart showing the current long trade, which would have been taken at 14 SPX points better prices, and the previous cash trade which would have been taken at 17 SPX points better prices.

I have not decided yet, I may in the future show the daily chart with the 60 min modification - however I would have to let you know in real time of course.

Thursday, October 23, 2014

GDX comments

GDX - Chart Link - as you know GDX has been under performing and that had not been good for the metal.  However down in here it may be prudent to keep an eye on it, the trend is down and it has been down for a long time, however down in here there is potential for it to form a small bull wedge if it chops around here for several days or a week or so, and notice the MACD divergence forming.  Now if GDX just craters down hard, this potential pattern will be lost, however if it continues to just chop around it may be something to keep an eye on.  In the short term monitor the MACD for a kiss potential - notice the pattern from late Dec 2013 as an example

Tuesday, October 21, 2014

60 min SPX

price simply holding the ATR indicator and BPT MA Deluxe on 60 min went green on the 15th.  

on a side note my programmer is working on an online charting software, we may be able to code the BPT MA Deluxe into it so folks can watch it intra day and put it on various stocks and other things - that's gonna be a while still.  

here's a chart of AAPL with the BPT MA Deluxe for example, same settings as the SPX, it's done pretty well ignoring most of the noise and staying in the trend.

Sunday, October 19, 2014

Weekend Newsletters

Hi Guys, hope you had a nice weekend, here's my newsletters!

- General Market Newsletter

- Commodity Newsletter

take care and good trading,

Matthew Frailey

Wednesday, October 15, 2014

Market Newsletter - take a look

Hello everyone, here's my recent newsletter, as you know the extreme volatility continues, the Dow was down over 400 points at one point, however many sectors and indexes rallied back quite a bit from the lows.  Could today have marketed some sort of capitulation day for the market and put in the major wave A that we've had on our charts? Perhaps, too early to day for sure, however some sectors like XLE energy, small caps, Semi conductors etc closed positive.  Review the newsletter for my thoughts and a few trade ideas.

Matthew Frailey

You can view the newsletter here.

Sunday, October 12, 2014

Important Market Update on our 401K system and the General Market

Hello everyone, as you know the BPT 401K Paint Dry System has been in cash for a while and had been expecting a good market correction, now that we've had a good market pullback, here's an detailed update on the BPT 401K Paint Dry System.  I include a short discussion, however make sure to watch the included 20 min video in the newsletter.

CLICK HERE for the 401K BPT Paint Dry System

Also here's a link to our General Market Newsletter this weekend, again anyone who has been following us should know that we have been expecting this market correction

CLICK HERE for the Weekend General Market Newsletter for Oct 12th, 2014

Matthew Frailey

Wednesday, October 8, 2014

Newsletter and managed futures service

Hello everyone, here's my newsletter on the market, which has been very volatile lately and today we had a big rally after the FOMC.  Make sure to listen as I discuss some swing trade potential ideas to monitor.  Please note that it may be a little hard to understand me since I'm under the weather (you will be able to tell from my voice).

CLICK HERE to view my market newsletter

Also I wanted to let you know that we have a manged futures service, how it works is you open an Interactive Brokers account and link it to our Efloor account, and when our automated futures systems take a trade, they will be automatically executed in your account, so for those of you who don't have time to trade and are comfortable with systems and futures, this maybe be something that interests you, click the newsletter link below to read more about this:

CLICK HERE for information on the manged futures service

Matthew Frailey


$BPENER - Chart Link - the BPENER hit 11% today, that's very low.  Also note the reverse divergence in place regarding price and the indicators, this may signal a low

$BPENER - Chart Link - Renko Chart

XLE - Chart Link - 

Sunday, October 5, 2014

Here's our most recent Market Newsletter for Monday Oct 6th, 2014

Here's our most recent newsletter, this one is very comprehensive and and very long as it discusses both the general market and commodities.  I hope you enjoy this comprehensive free newsletter

CLICK HERE to view the newsletter

have a good week!


Wednesday, October 1, 2014

BPT MA Deluxe Powerful Market Indicator

Hello everyone, here's a chart of my powerful BPT MA Deluxe market trending indicator, it doesn't catch exact tops or bottoms, but it does very well catching trends.  Here's a current chart showing the last year and a statistics table showing trades going back to 2010, out of 37 trades only 4 losing trades and the largest losing trade was less than 2%, that's not bad.  Also the average hold time is 45 days so it's easy to follow even if you work a busy day job, and some trades last as long as 3 to 6 months with a couple of them lasting about 200 days!

This powerful market indicator comes free with a BPT membership, which is only $50 a month, just one trade should easily pay for your membership many times over and you can expect an average of 3 - 5 trades in a 6 month period. 

Here's a link to our signup page, consider signing up to our 6 month membership!

Tuesday, September 30, 2014

Simple system using the 50% level on a 14 Length RSI

Hello all, here's a video that I just made showing you an ultra simplistic system using a standard 14 length RSI and getting long or short triggers when price tags or gets very close to the 50% level on the RSI.  Your trigger is taking back at least 50% or more of the previous candle similar to the method Steve shows in his tutorials. Anyway it's pretty simple, but figured I'd share it with you guys. This method works with any stock, seems to work best on the daily time frames per my observations.

CLICK HERE to watch the video

enjoy the rest of your day


Sunday, September 28, 2014

Detailed Commodity Newsletter Sunday September 28th 2014

Hello everyone, here's the highly detailed weekend commodity newsletter.  I will follow up with a newsletter on the general market later this evening.

CLICK HERE to watch the Commodity Newsletter

I hope your weekend is going well,

Matthew Frailey

Thursday, September 25, 2014

BPT MA Deluxe update

yes I can confirm that the BPT MA Deluxe went red.  It goes to cash if price has been green for a long time as it would assume it's a trending wave and due for a choppy ABC wave, however the indicator was not green for long enough, thus once price sliced through the ATR it turned red this time vs going to cash like it did the past few times

Here's new new statistics, clearly this last pullback gave back a lot of gains that it had but still closed out with about a 1% gain.  Again as Steve and I have said, this is a great trending indicator, probably one of the best out there, but it's not gonna catch tops and bottoms, best used in conjunction with you own analysis etc.  See the chart and stats table showing the trades going back several years

Sunday, September 7, 2014

Weekend Newsletter for Sept 7th, 2014

Hello everyone, I hope you had a nice weekend so far!  Here's the general market newsletter, please take the time to review as I have some important charts and updates in tonight's newsletter.

General Market Newsletter Sept 7th, 2014

Matthew Frailey

Monday, August 18, 2014

Monday August 18th, 2014 Market Newsletter

Hello all, here's my most recent comprehensive market newsletter

CLICK HERE to view the Free newsletter

Breakpoint Trades is one of best technical analysis websites bar none, each week we provide 6 highly detailed newsletters with market analysis and trade ideas.  If you are looking for robust mechanical systems with exact entries and exits in order to take out the emotion we have that too (click here).  If you are looking for a managed futures account, we have that as well (click here).  If you are looking for custom market indicators and long term tools for 401K's we have that too. Think of Breakpoint Trades like a  smorgasbord buffet, we have something for all types of traders and you can't beat our prices!

Sign up for a 6 month membership today by clicking here today

Matthew Frailey

Monday, August 11, 2014

Monday August 11th, 2014 Newsletter

Hello everyone, here's tonight's newsletter, please take the time to review as I discuss plenty of educational topics, and of course the analysis and trade ideas.

CLICK HERE to view the Newsletter

best to your evening,

Matthew Frailey

Friday, August 8, 2014

Here's our thoughts on the recent market action

Hello everyone, as you know the market has had a really nice correction so far off the highs from 3 weeks ago; I hope some of you paid attention we called for a pullback and presented plenty of shorts and market inverse ETF's as a way to play this correction, plus we've been calling for a major pullback for early this fall all summer long.  Here's our most recent very detailed market newsletter with our thoughts:

CLICK HERE to view the Free Newsletter

Sunday, August 3, 2014

Weekend Market Newsletters

Hello everyone, I hope you had a nice weekend!  Here's my free market weekend newsletters, one is on commodities and one is on the general market.  As you know, the market has finally had a much overdue pullback, click the URL's below to view the free newsletters and have a nice week!

CLICK HERE for the Commodity and Precious Metals Newsletter

CLICK HERE for the General Market Newsletter

take care,

Matthew Frailey

Thursday, July 31, 2014

follow up on Mid Cap Index

$MID - Chart Link - big market down day, H&S pattern appears to be playing out, notice that price is now testing the uptrend line from Feb

Wednesday, July 30, 2014

Here's my complimentary highly detailed market newsletter

Hello everyone, as you know, the market has been quite volatile lately, here's my review of the market along with commodities, precious metals, and some trade Ideas.

CLICK HERE to view the free BPT Newsletter

Matthew Frailey

Wednesday, July 23, 2014

July 23rd 2014 Newsletter

Hello everyone, here's our free market newsletter, we've had a lot of nice trade ideas lately as well as educational materials.

CLICK HERE to view the newsletter.

Also those of you who may be interested in a managed futures account, CLICK HERE to read more about it.  This is an automated ES futures system that you can setup to have trades sent to your Interactive Brokers account

Matthew Frailey

Sunday, July 6, 2014

Here's my comprehensive Commodity Newsletter for July 6th, 2014

Hello everyone, first off I hope you had a nice 4th!!

Here's the Commodity Weekend Newsletter, please take the time to review, there is some important administrative things discussed, but also a lot of educational things as well as swing trading ideas for those of you who busy with day jobs etc.  Later today I will post the general market newsletter as well.

take care and enjoy the rest of your Sunday!

Matthew Frailey

Sunday, June 22, 2014

Huge Commodity and Precious Metals Newsletter for June 22nd 2014!

Hello everyone, here's my weekend commodity newsletter.  This one mainly focuses on the precious metals are, which has had a nice move over the last month, however for those of you who may have missed it, I think you will have a second chance to establish some very nice swing trades once the stocks pullback some as short term they are quite over bought.  Also I discuss lots of educational topics as well, so do yourself a favor and listen!

CLICK HERE to view the Newsletter

Matthew Frailey

CDE weekly view

CDE - Chart Link - guys I have a very detailed newsletter for commodities, those of you who are swing trades will want to pay attention as I high-light some major opportunities coming.  I will post shortly the audio is complete, just have to add some text

Friday, June 20, 2014

Newsletter for Friday Morning June 20th, 2014

Here's our most recent very comprehensive newsletter, besides our normal analysis and trade ideas this one also contains educational material so make sure to check it out!

CLICK HERE to view the Newsletter

Sunday, June 8, 2014

BPT General Market Newsletter

Hello everyone, here's the General Market Newsletter, which contains, market analysis, trade ideas, education, and discussion on our new service coming.

CLICK HERE to View the Free Newsletter.


Also please see our coupon below, this is the last one at these prices, take advantage now!!

Attention!!! We are raising our awesome 6 month membership price on July 1st from $40 a month to $50 a month or $240 to $300. Our prices have been the same since 2003, thus this a VERY modest increase.

HOWEVER before we raise prices, here's a coupon for 25% off our 6 month membership!  Use this to snag a 6 month membership at bargain prices!


**25% Coupon** off a Breakpoint Trades Membership! (expires Jan 1st 2012!)


Use this coupon code ( 0551087D68 ) to get an additional 25% off of our 6 month membership! Please note this offer only applies to our 6 month membership!


Here's how to sign up and receive our special offer: Click on the URL below and you will be brought to your members landing page, select the 6 month membership Special Sale, choose your payment method, and enter the coupon code 0551087D68, then click on the order button.


**Click Here** - Sign Up Page (New Members)


 Note: if you've had a membership with us before, you will need to use use this link instead and enter your email address:


Sign Up Page for Previous BPT members

Commodity Weekend Newsletter

Hello everyone, first off I hope you had a nice weekend!

Here's my commodity weekend newsletter, it's very comprehensive and I included some educational things in it so worthwhile to listen if you have time.  Also I briefly discuss a new service coming.

enjoy the rest of your day and later this evening I'll send one more newsletter for the General Market newsletter.

Matthew Frailey

Thursday, May 29, 2014

Nice complement of me by this author

I talked to a new member yesterday on the phone helping him out with the website and he said that he heard about me from the author Jesse Stine, who wrote the popular book "Insider Buy Superstocks"

here's another book by him, mentions me on page 244, this was way back in 2010, I had no idea, honestly I'm flattered. 

I wish I had time to write book, I think I could write a good one on TA and trading

Monday, May 26, 2014

Latest Market Newsletter

Hello everyone, I hope you enjoyed your long 3 day weekend, in observance of Memorial Day the US Markets were closed on Monday.

Here's my General Market Newsletter


Also note we have a new service coming in mid June

Thursday, May 22, 2014


IBB - Chart Link poking its head out of the triangle and trendline

IBB - Chart Link - 60 min view

BPT MA Deluxe and 60 min things I'm watching

I've been using the BPT MA Deluxe on the 60 min SPX chart to get low risk entries on pullback, I have not automated this year but considering doing so eventually.  I have not put all the rules together but have been trading it with SPY and well - anyway here's what I'm looking at, watch the video below

CLICK HERE to watch the video

Wednesday, May 21, 2014

Solars ...

Huge day for TSL (Up 30%) ... lots of solar stocks were rockin' today ... 

Solars ...

Huge day for TSL (Up 30%) ... lots of solar stocks were rockin' today ... 

Monday, May 19, 2014

Here's our most recent newsletter

Hello everyone, here's my recent newsletter, CLICK HERE to view the Newsletter

I discuss the general market and some trade ideas as well as our SPY Professional system which just closed out of another winning trade today!

Also we have now launched a new service with Ditto Trade for those of you who want a truly automated experience where you can have our SPY Pro trades automatically executed in your account for you!

good trading,


Matthew Frailey

Thursday, May 8, 2014

SPY Professional System achieves first scaleout

Hello everyone, The SPY Pro system achieved its first scaleout, click the newsletter link below to see details.

CLICK HERE to view the Newsletter

Matthew Frailey

Wednesday, May 7, 2014

Wednesday May 7th Newsletter

Hello everyone, here's my detailed newsletter, this one covers the general market, our SPY Professional System and Ditto Trade, some commodities, and trade ideas

CLICK HERE to view the Newsletter

take care,

Matthew Frailey

SPY Pro system comments

For those of you following the scaleout versions of the SPY pro system:

1% scaleout is at a price of $188.65 and the 1.25% scaleout is at a price of $189.11.  I have not officially changed the current 1% to 1.25% but probably will soon.  

The 2.75% scaleout is at a price of $191.92.  

Again should you wish to follow those simply set GTC orders so that they automatically execute for you.  Or you may choose not to follow the scaleouts.

I also have a scale-in version of the system that I'm considering where it would enter a second position at better prices.  I have not yet decided on this.  

Here's two very detailed excel reports, right click to download them, these show all the trades for the non-scaleout and scalein.

Also I've attached in image showing an example of the scale-in vs the non-scale-in (see the Feb trade).  None of these contain scaleouts

SPY system Excel File Non-scalout system (right click to download)

SPY system Excel File two Scale-in version (right click to download)