Thursday, November 20, 2014

Exhaustion Statistics follow up

Hello everyone, here's a follow up to the exhaustion trade statistics:  Today is the 24th consecutive close above the 8 day SMA along with %K over 88%.  Over the last 50 years, this condition has only occurred 4 times, max draw down on $100,000 is only -$393! Target is a close back below the 8 day SMA over the next 4 - 5 days

Condition: On the SPX cash, price closes above the 8 day SMA for 24 consecutive days along with a 10 length %R indicator also closing above 88%.  

The key is that the SPX needs to close up for today with the %R staying over 88%, obviously we'll have to see how it looks near the close

the images below, the first one shows the current SPX chart, the second shows the Tradestation Statistics, the 3rd shows you the trade list, the last 4 charts show you every trade on the chart at that time, 2012, 2006, 1998, 1986, interesting thing to note is that note one of those instances was a major top, just a quick pullback then prices moved higher

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