We've all heard of the old Wall Street Mantra, 'Sell In May and Go Away', here's a table of the detailed Statistics.
Click here to watch the video where I describe the statistics in more detail
**please note, if you click on the URL and you get a blank screen, please refresh the page and you should see the video play button.
INWK - here's a long idea that held up well today with decent volume. Resistance is the upper trendline.
AAPL - As you know, the uptrend line AAPL has been astonishing. However it's one to once in regards to the general market, since it represents about a 15% weighting with respect to the Nasdaq 100. Here's a 60 min chart, perhaps a bear wedge is forming inside the uptrend channel, and there is negative divergence; something to watch!
well one thing that has bothered me about gold is that it is typically dead money in the summer usually starting in May, and it's almost April now. One possibility I discussed was for gold to possibly spend the the next 5 months forming a large triangle pattern, it would basically be a choppy up and down mess, then rally in late July or Aug when Gold historically picks up
see my chart, again even if it forms a triangle, it might not be exactly like this, it's an illustration
Click the link below to view the most recent newsletter. This one contains lots of good stuff: market analysis, mechanical systems, precious metals, and great trade ideas
NFLX - a member asked me about NFLX if it could be forming a cup and handle pattern. Yes perhaps, it was an old pick of ours back in Dec which played out well, of course I didn't hold it the 70's to $130, heck of a run
anyway the cup and handle pattern is valid, but you want to see volume pick up on a breakout, if it were to sell down again and take the Mar low or spend too much time going sideways, then it would no longer be this pattern. What troubles me somewhat is the time of the year, we are fast coming up on the sell in May and go away, which actually starts in April if you get a MACD cross via the MACD timing. so will it have time to play out to target about $200 before sell in May hits? IDK.
also it's plotted on a log chart, and is why it looked condensed. the pattern is approximately $70 points in height, so if you add this to the trendline, you get about $200, which also matches up nicely with previous support back in Aug.
who knows,we'll see I guess....
UUP - H&S starting to play out, this is a 60 min chart, however the daily Euro chart as a H&S pattern, so once this short term chart is played out, perhaps the larger one on the Euro will begin to play out
The RSI 2 Strategy triggered today as RSI 2 length fell below 10%. Here's the stats to the system, and the rules
Longs: RSI 2 closes below 10% and price is above the 200 SMA. Exit longs when price closes back over the 9 SMA
Shorts: RSI 2 closes above 90% and price is below the 200 SMA. Exit shorts when price closes back below the 8 SMA
where this system get's caught of course is during market inflection points i.e. a downtrend is starting or an uptrend is beginning
For the GDX weekly, it would be nice to see those stochastics get fully oversold, they are getting close but still not there, matters though what it looks like on Friday's close
yes divergence is building on the 60 min, here's my chart. both stochastics are oversold again so that's good. you need to see MACD cross back up to confirm the divergence. For now GDX is still wedging down. Also watch the GDX/GLD ratio trendline
here's a chart that was sent to me, but I dont' know who the author is, otherwise I'd give credit. Interesting chart, but who knows.
Personally though I do think we'll see a sell in may again this year, though I would not surprise me to see it earlier such as in April sometime, we'll see I guess.
I went a little overboard on the commodity newsletter this week, covers tons of stuff, here you go!
$GASO - Unleaded gasoline (does not include taxes you pay at the pump), some preliminary Neg Divergence forming, however note what happened last Mar, price rallied for another 1 1/2 months to form a longer divergence.
$GASO - weekly view, see the long term trendlines/resistance, breakout out over those would be painful at the pump
USO - 60 min view of USO Crude ETF, the correction has been overlappy and choppy, suggests an eventual upside break
$WTIC - crude daily, the pattern still continues to look bullish, it has consolidated over resistance and now the Ratio is turning up and MACD is above zero.
US Dollar is down 40 cents, so that will help
OIH - Oil Services - interesting pattern to watch, volume has been light
Hello everyone, here's our comprehensive Thursday newsletter covering the general market, Treasuries/Bonds, Copper,Coal,Nat Gas, Gold, and some trade ideas.
Enjoy your Friday and have a great weekend!
Thursday March 15th, 2012 Newsletter!
Interesting article for fun from
The violent selloff and subsequent grinding higher feels very unique. Some have even said this market feels “unnatural” or “rigged” due to quantitative easing, high frequency trading, LTRO, ZIRP and other boogie men. I assure you these market conditions are not unique at all. Here are 5 examples of statistically similar markets and what transpired afterwards.
These instances were identified by our pattern recognition algorithm as self-similar in form to the market conditions we are currently experiencing. The requirements for this search was a substantial selloff followed with a choppy bottoming process and a grind higher taking out the previous highs. Spoiler alert: These instances (since 1970) overwhelmingly occur in bull markets and tend to lead to meaningfully higher prices.
For reference sake, here’s where we’re at:
December 1989 – July 1990
The result is quite bearish:
Actually embedded in instance 1 (freaky): July 1990 – March 1991
The result: Higher prices
January 1994 – March 1995
The result: Super bull
February 2005 – July 2005
The result: A pullback and new highs
April 2010 – November 2010
The result: This instance is fresh in our minds and most will remember a shallow pullback and higher prices.
The present
To aid your visualization I’ve included the appropriate negative space for both a bullish and bearish outcome. There is room for both interpretations, but the choice, as always, is up to you.
Bullish:
Bearish:
Regarding Google, it appears to be forming a large H&S top
