For the GDX weekly, it would be nice to see ...

For the GDX weekly, it would be nice to see those stochastics get fully oversold, they are getting close but still not there, matters though what it looks like on Friday's close

yes divergence is building on the 60 min, here's my ...

yes divergence is building on the 60 min, here's my chart.  both stochastics are oversold again so that's good.  you need to see MACD cross back up to confirm the divergence.  For now GDX is still wedging down.  Also watch the GDX/GLD ratio trendline

cycle chart

here's a chart that was sent to me, but I dont' know who the author is, otherwise I'd give credit. Interesting chart, but who knows.

Personally though I do think we'll see a sell in may again this year, though I would not surprise me to see it earlier such as in April sometime, we'll see I guess.  

Weekend Commodity Newsletter Sunday Mar 18th

I went a little overboard on the commodity newsletter this week, covers tons of stuff, here you go!

Weekend Commodity Newsletter Sunday Mar 18th

Unleaded Gasoline

$GASO - Unleaded gasoline (does not include taxes you pay at the pump), some preliminary Neg Divergence forming, however note what happened last Mar, price rallied for another 1 1/2 months to form a longer divergence. 

$GASO - weekly view, see the long term trendlines/resistance, breakout out over those would be painful at the pump

A Few Misc commodities

Here's a few Misc commodities that I wasn't aware Stockcharts.com tracked

$SOYB - Soybeans, been strong since it broke out of an inverse H&S pattern back in Feb

$SUGAR - interesting pattern, I'm curious to see if the trendline can be taken out

$WHEAT - Ascending Triangle forming?

USO - 60 min view of USO Crude ETF, the correction ...

USO - 60 min view of USO Crude ETF, the correction has been overlappy and choppy, suggests an eventual upside break

$WTIC - crude daily, the pattern still continues to look bullish, it has consolidated over resistance and now the Ratio is turning up and MACD is above zero.

US Dollar is down 40 cents, so that will help

OIH - Oil Services - interesting pattern to watch, volume has been light

Hello everyone, here's our comprehensive Thursday newsletter covering the general market, Treasuries/Bonds, Copper,Coal,Nat Gas, Gold, and some trade ideas.

Enjoy your Friday and have a great weekend!

Thursday March 15th, 2012 Newsletter!

GLD 5 min and 60 min comments

GLD - perhaps an inverse H&S is setting up? 

GLD - 60 min view, however as I stated last night, the 60 min chart needs a lot of work, perhaps it's forming a wedge, but wedge patterns have 5 waves or ABCDE, right now we only have 3, therefore a bounce may be wave D, then another down in E?

here's a shorter term view

here's a shorter term view

Natural Gas, UNG and BOIL had a big surge

UNG - UNG and BOIL had a big surge in the last 30 min

UNG 60 min view

BOIL

TBT

TBT - looking more interesting here, nice base forming

sell in may stats

That would be great Matt, looking forward to it.

Choose Your Own Adventure: SPX 2013

Interesting article for fun from 

Dynamic Hedge

The violent selloff and subsequent grinding higher feels very unique. Some have even said this market feels “unnatural” or “rigged” due to quantitative easing, high frequency trading, LTRO, ZIRP and other boogie men. I assure you these market conditions are not unique at all. Here are 5 examples of statistically similar markets and what transpired afterwards.

These instances were identified by our pattern recognition algorithm as self-similar in form to the market conditions we are currently experiencing. The requirements for this search was a substantial selloff followed with a choppy bottoming process and a grind higher taking out the previous highs. Spoiler alert: These instances (since 1970) overwhelmingly occur in bull markets and tend to lead to meaningfully higher prices.

For reference sake, here’s where we’re at:

Instance 1:

December 1989 – July 1990

The result is quite bearish:

Instance 2:

Actually embedded in instance 1 (freaky): July 1990 – March 1991

The result: Higher prices

Instance 3:

January 1994 – March 1995

The result: Super bull

Instance 4:

February 2005 – July 2005

The result: A pullback and new highs

Instance 5:

April 2010 – November 2010

The result: This instance is fresh in our minds and most will remember a shallow pullback and higher prices.

Instance 6:

The present

To aid your visualization I’ve included the appropriate negative space for both a bullish and bearish outcome.  There is room for both interpretations, but the choice, as always, is up to you.

Bullish:

Bearish:

 

 

Regarding Google, it appears to be forming a large H&S ...

Regarding Google, it appears to be forming a large H&S top