Wednesday, March 28, 2012

Sell in May and go away Statistics

We've all heard of the old Wall Street Mantra, 'Sell In May and Go Away', here's a table of the detailed Statistics.


Click here to watch the video where I describe the statistics in more detail


**please note, if you click on the URL and you get a blank screen, please refresh the page and you should see the video play button.

INWK trade idea

INWK - here's a long idea that held up well today with decent volume.  Resistance is the upper trendline.

AAPL 60 min

AAPL - As you know, the uptrend line AAPL has been astonishing. However it's one to once in regards to the general market, since it represents about a 15% weighting with respect to the Nasdaq 100. Here's a 60 min chart, perhaps a bear wedge is forming inside the uptrend channel, and there is negative divergence; something to watch!

well one thing that has bothered me about gold is ...

well one thing that has bothered me about gold is that it is typically dead money in the summer usually starting in May, and it's almost April now.  One possibility I discussed was for gold to possibly spend the the next 5 months forming a large triangle pattern, it would basically be a choppy up and down mess, then rally in late July or Aug when Gold historically picks up


see my chart, again even if it forms a triangle, it might not be exactly like this, it's an illustration

Monday, March 26, 2012

Newsletter Mar 27th 2012

Click the link below to view the most recent newsletter.  This one contains lots of good stuff: market analysis, mechanical systems, precious metals, and great trade ideas


Newsletter Mar 27th 2012

US Dollar update

the H&S pattern is playing out, here's the 60 min UUP and 233 min Dollar index

Copper

$COPPER - nice rally in Copper today, I've had this drawn as an ABCDE triangle for a few weeks now.  If that low was truly wave E, that should have completed the consolidation and copper should now be ready to breakout of the pattern to the upside.

NFLX comments


NFLX - a member asked me about NFLX if it could be forming a cup and handle pattern.  Yes perhaps, it was an old pick of ours back in Dec which played out well, of course I didn't hold it the 70's to $130, heck of a run


anyway the cup and handle pattern is valid, but you want to see volume pick up on a breakout, if it were to sell down again and take the Mar low or spend too much time going sideways, then it would no longer be this pattern.  What troubles me somewhat is the time of the year, we are fast coming up on the sell in May and go away, which actually starts in April if you get a MACD cross via the MACD timing.  so will it have time to play out to target about $200 before sell in May hits? IDK.  


also it's plotted on a log chart, and is why it looked condensed. the pattern is approximately $70 points in height, so if you add this to the trendline, you get about $200, which also matches up nicely with previous support back in Aug.


who knows,we'll see I guess....


NUVA Setup

NUVA


Would like to see volume percentage increase clearing 14.50 area....

BIDU Update

BIDU


Reaching some initial target zones and measured moves......

DRIV trade idea

DRIV - nice cup and handle pattern

60 min UUP,USD

UUP - H&S starting to play out, this is a 60 min chart, however the daily Euro chart as a H&S pattern, so once this short term chart is played out, perhaps the larger one on the Euro will begin to play out

Sunday, March 25, 2012

GDX daily

GDX - Zooming out a bit, GDX is once again attempting to find support at the lower trendline, which now has 6 touches

Thursday, March 22, 2012

RSI 2 SPY Stragegy

The RSI 2 Strategy triggered today as RSI 2 length fell below 10%.  Here's the stats to the system, and the rules


Longs: RSI 2 closes below 10% and price is above the 200 SMA.  Exit longs when price closes back over the 9 SMA


Shorts: RSI 2 closes above 90% and price is below the 200 SMA.  Exit shorts when price closes back below the 8 SMA


where this system get's caught of course is during market inflection points i.e. a downtrend is starting or an uptrend is beginning 

For the GDX weekly, it would be nice to see ...

For the GDX weekly, it would be nice to see those stochastics get fully oversold, they are getting close but still not there, matters though what it looks like on Friday's close