Tuesday, July 13, 2010

Long Term SPX system from 1961

The long term SPX system that goes back to 1961 crossed over this morning for a sell signal.  Technically the MA's crossed last week, however the way the code is written, since it's based on a weekly chart, I think it needed a new opening bar the next week (which is today) in order to trigger.  I updated the table

Again treat this info how you wish.  For me personally I can't trade this system because it's too long, doesn't fit my style, it's like watching paint dry since the average trade time is 267 days!  However for someone who doesn't trade the market maybe it makes sense, like someone who works a busy job and only wants to make some well timed trades in 401K that is better than just buy and hold.

And of course, realize that the system has loses like any system, the average losing trade being about -2.9%, so it does whipsaw from time to time.  Also sometimes the system will do a very short whipsaw trade where it does a trade that lasts for only a week and then reverses back; this happens in strong trends where it may short but then go back long again, however the majority of trades are many months as you can see from the stats.  Keep in mind that this short trade could be a whipsaw losing trade in the end, or it could be a winner, there is no way to know at this time.  



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