Hello everyone, first off I hope you all had a nice Thanksgiving and a nice weekend so far. Here's my free market newsletters for the weekend. Please note that this time instead of just a simple audio overlay, I included a lot of written text to help you focus on the charts of importance, hopefully this helps you quite a bit!
- CLICK HERE for the Commodity Newsletter
- CLICK HERE to the General Market Newsletter (SPX, Indexes)
enjoy the rest of your weekend!
Matthew Frailey
Hello everyone, here's an important and rare technical event that is setting up on the market, I call it an exhaustion trade. Click the newsletter link below to read more about it. This is a condition that has only occurred 4 times in the last 50 years.
You can view the Newsletter Here click here.
enjoy the rest of your day,
Matthew Frailey
Hello everyone, here's a follow up to the exhaustion trade statistics: Today is the 24th consecutive close above the 8 day SMA along with %K over 88%. Over the last 50 years, this condition has only occurred 4 times, max draw down on $100,000 is only -$393! Target is a close back below the 8 day SMA over the next 4 - 5 days
Condition: On the SPX cash, price closes above the 8 day SMA for 24 consecutive days along with a 10 length %R indicator also closing above 88%.
The key is that the SPX needs to close up for today with the %R staying over 88%, obviously we'll have to see how it looks near the close
the images below, the first one shows the current SPX chart, the second shows the Tradestation Statistics, the 3rd shows you the trade list, the last 4 charts show you every trade on the chart at that time, 2012, 2006, 1998, 1986, interesting thing to note is that note one of those instances was a major top, just a quick pullback then prices moved higher
Hello All, I hope you had a nice weekend! Here's my two free comprehensive weekend newsletters
- CLICK HERE to view the Commodity Newsletter - quite a few trade ideas here: crude oil, natural gas, uranium, and precious metal gold stocks
- CLICK HERE for the General Market Newsletter - quick discussion on the general stock market, BPT MA Deluxe trending indicator, and SPY Pro system. Have a great week!
Matthew Frailey
$SPX - Chart Link - here's a daily chart of the S&P 500. As you know the market has had one hell of a rally of the Oct lows in a straight up V rally - in fact this is the fastest rally in terms of percentage gained over time in history. Clearly the market will need to rest soon, perhaps this trendline will offer some resistance
Hello everyone, I hope you enjoyed your weekend, and October is finally over, what a wild month! Here's my free weekend newsletters.
- CLICK HERE for the Commodities Newsletter
- CLICK HERE for the General Market Analysis Newsletter
enjoy the rest of your week!
Matt
Hello guys, last weekend as you know I showed you some examples how when the daily BPT MA Deluxe gives a trade signal on the daily SPX chart, that one could zoom down to a 60 min chart to get better prices if the 5 and 14 RSI's were overbought (for longs) or oversold (for shorts), and you simply wait until the next day when these RSI's recycle. This of course is just common sense and could be improved upon a lot, however this exercise is to get you out of the 'robot mode' about taking the daily charts without looking at your intra day charts and other factors.
The first image shows you two tables, the one on the left shows you the trade signals based only on the daily chart. The table to the right shows you the dates and prices if you used a 60 min chart to get better prices a day later if the RSI's were overbought or oversold at the time of the daily signals. If you look at the table, not every signal is better or different, in fact many of them do not change the daily signal (if RSI was not at extreme levels on the 60 min chart at the time, I simply take the daily signal as is). For the columns, compare the dates, the # of days, and points better,and % Gain columns.
The difference you will see is that some of the trade signals you are able to get 10 - 17 points better prices on the SPX. Also you will note that the average trade time jumps from 43 to 46 days, which is just common sense since you are typically waiting a day or so longer using the 60 min.
- The second image below shows you the daily SPX with BPT MA Deluxe signals noted (non - 60 min modified)
- The 3rd image below shows you the Current SPX with BPT MA Deluxe and the new signals based on 60 min
- The 4th image shows you a 60 min chart showing the current long trade, which would have been taken at 14 SPX points better prices, and the previous cash trade which would have been taken at 17 SPX points better prices.
I have not decided yet, I may in the future show the daily chart with the 60 min modification - however I would have to let you know in real time of course.
