CLICK HERE to view the Newsletter
Matthew Frailey
Sunday, March 30, 2014
Key Market Statistics In-Depth Discussion
Hello everyone, I hope you had a nice weekend so far! Since Monday marks the end of the 1st quarter, I thought it would be fitting to update our powerful 1st quarter market statistics, which is first discussed below and we showed over the last two years. However I also decided to update our other market statistics as well such as the January stats and the Sell in May and Go Away stats as well, and I also incorporated some simple logic from our 401K long term paint dry system.
CLICK HERE to view the Newsletter
Matthew Frailey
CLICK HERE to view the Newsletter
Matthew Frailey
General Market Newsletter Mar 30th, 2014
Hello everyone, here's my comprehensive general market newsletter covering the recent market action, what to watch for and expect, various market statistics, BPT MA Deluxe indicator, and a few short term trade ideas.
CLICK HERE to view the newsletter
Also some of you have asked questions regarding my long term 401K paint dry system, I also discuss that here as well.
Matthew Frailey
Wednesday, March 19, 2014
I had some appointments this morning and so I just ...
I had some appointments this morning and so I just now updated the trades for the systems to reflect the SPY Pro and Ver 2 systems closing out their trades, also here's two charts of the SPY Pro and Ver 2 systems
CLICK HERE to see all the system trades
Sunday, March 16, 2014
Long Term 401K paint dry system is 401K system section done etc
I have completed the 401K system section with text, current chart, statistics, and past charts.
The long only version of the system, your money grew by 421 times the original investment vs 30 times via buy and hold.
and for the long/short version, it grew by 745 times wow. Also what's nice is that I can take this method all the way back to 1922 using the Dow Jones and the system performs beautifully, even avoiding the 1929 crash. I will put together that table one day however not today obviously. Also I am going to add these long term rules to the BPT MA Deluxe to catch these
CLICK HERE to view the section
Note I have not yet completed the BPT MA Deluxe tab but will do so either tonight or early this week. I have both newsletters this weekend so my time is limited.
Thursday, March 13, 2014
gold stocks
BAA - Chart Link - clearly was a pretty awesome day if you took some gold stocks home from yesterday or bought some first thing this morning as they started off flat with GDX only up a few cents.
Sunday, March 2, 2014
BPT 401K Long Tern System goes to cash
Hello everyone, first off I hope you're have a nice weekend! Here's a detailed newsletter which covers my long term 401K paint dry system, which just went to cash on Friday. I explain the system in great detail, so please have a look, it's also a very nice system for you to give your family and friends who don't trade but want to beat the pants off 'buy and hold' but still catch long term trends and be out and safely in cash during bear markets.
CLICK HERE to view the Newsletter
Matthew Frailey
Wednesday, February 26, 2014
Long Term 401K paint dry system is going to cash end of month
Hello everyone, as you know, a while back I developed a long term system based on a monthly chart of the S&P 500, it's affectionately called the 'paint dry' system because the trades can last for years. I designed it not for traders, but for family and friends, neighbors who do not trade the market and will never trade the market, but want to do better than buy and hold. The system is designed to keep you in entire bull markets but have you out for bear markets, for example the system went to cash in Jan 2008 and then went back long on Mar 31st 2009 just 3 weeks off the bear market bottom and is still long almost 5 years later. My Long only version of the system, from 1962 to present your money grew by 289 times the original investment vs 30 times buy and hold. For my long/short version your money increased by 534 times vs 30 times buy and hold - see the attached tables where the trade and stats are listed.
Currently the system has been in this long trade for 1794 days, the average is 1235 days, however the trade from Oct 2002 to Jan 2008 lasted 1918 days, while the long from Aug 31st 1984 to Aug 31st 1984 lasted 2191 days.
HOWEVER the system is going to go to cash at the end of this month because of a technical situation that has occurred with the market. It has to do with price closing for 20 months consecutively above the 8 MA along with the Willams% indicator above 90%. The system will be going to cash at the close of this month and will then look to buy a pullback. The last time the system did this was in Mar 31st 1998, it then bought the sharp pullback and went back long on Aug 31st 1998 (see the 3rd chart). Over the weekend I will discuss in more detail what this technical signal is. Do NOT take this is a sell short signal right now, and also the previous time this occurred the market stayed out for 3 - 5 months before having a hard pullback, if history holds true then maybe this portends to our market having a strong correction either in May or fall time frame for general seasonality.
I will discuss this briefly in tonight's newsletter, however I will discuss it in more detail on the weekend in a separate newsletter.
Wednesday, February 12, 2014
Feb 12th, 2014 Market Newsletter
Hello everyone, here's my most recent newsletter, I discuss the general market action, precious metals, and of course my powerful BPT MA Deluxe trending indicator and some amazing educational pieces, so make sure to check it out!
You can view the Newsletter Here.
Matthew Frailey
Monday, February 3, 2014
Market Comments Feb 3rd 2014
Jan closed the month red - that is a bearish start for the year and generally how the market finishes Jan is a good barometer of how the market will do for the year - so not a good start!
Anyway here's a few S&P 500 charts - a few weeks back we were showing a bear wedge developing on the S&P 500, clearly that's played out nicely now. Also OPEX clearly marketed a nice top in Jan (notice from the 4th chart how options expiration has been a good guide at marking infection points (tops and bottoms) in the market.
The S&P 500 is now testing an trendline line, see the second chart - if this trendline is lost the next logical support area is the 200 day MA - which by the way hasn't been tested in a long time and is over due.
I've you've listened to my newsletters, I've stated many times over the last 1 - 2 months that I think the market will have a 10 - 15% correction or more in the 1st quarter of this year or in April/May which is typically the weak time of the year - maybe it's starting?
We are now 5 years into this bull market which began in March 2009, getting a bit long in the tooth - 2014 won't be the 'cake walk' that 2013 was, the gains will be much harder.
stay tuned...
FAZ trade idea follow up
The market is really selling off as of late, not that we are surprised! anyway nice move on this trade idea of ours FAZ from last week
Thursday, January 30, 2014
SPY Professional system acheives its first exit!
Hello everyone, as you know the SPY Professional system went long yesterday at the close and the market is up nicely today, here's an important trade notification regarding this system, click the newsletter link before for more details about the system and this current trade!
This system has 96% winning trades - if you are not a member to Breakpoint Trades - subscribe to your 6 month membership and start receiving email trade notifications to this system!! Just one winning trades more than pays for your membership and had you been a member for the last year, you would have paid for your membership for many lifetimes and would have made many 1000's of dollars.
CLICK HERE to view the Newsletter
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(Click here to read more about the SPY Pro system)
Matthew Frailey
Sunday, January 26, 2014
Jan 26th Market Newsletter and Automated systems
With the recent market sell off from last week, here's my most recent newsletter, and there is also discussion of our automated systems
Sunday, January 5, 2014
Powerful Free 3 1/2 hr Education Tutorial
Hello everyone, here's the weekend commodity newsletter, however a LOT of extra stuff is included in this newsletter that is not commodity related such as discussion on the SPY systems and I even include a 3 1/2 hr Education Tutorial which will amaze you so make sure to listen! And if you are not a member - consider become a paying subscriber, our 6 month rates are extremely reasonable.
Best to your trading week!
Matthew Frailey
Thursday, January 2, 2014
Updated Market Statistics for last year and something to monitor for the new year
Hello all, as you know the market is nicely down today, not surprised with the divergence that was in place.
Anyway I have updated the market statistics that I like to show at the first of the year and into 1st quarter - we showed these table last year in early Jan (for the Jan stats) and in march for the (1st quarter) which also ended very strong, both foretold that the market would likely end the year very strong and it did - Dow gained 35.6% for the year as you can see after after a strong 5% gain in Jan and 11.3% gain by the 1st quarter.
Now it will be interesting how these look this year, clearly not a good start today LOL
Sunday, December 29, 2013
Commodity Newsletter Dec 30th, 2013
Hello everyone, first off I hope that you enjoyed your weekend! Here's my weekend commodity newsletter, however please note that 1st 1/3 of it is devoted to admin comments relating to the SPY systems, so please make sure to look it over as it may answer some lingering questions that you may have.
CLICK HERE to read the newsletter
enjoy the rest of your evening and see you tomorrow on the trading community blog
Matthew Frailey
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