5 min SPX

AIG system

The AIG system had an incredible day, making over 13%!!!

as a side note, this LinearRegSlope indicator (which I showed in last nights Newsletter on the SPX 60 min chart), appears to match the pivot signals very well, and many times it's better.

Watch List Weekend Commentary

SPX monthly - stopped at 20 month!

It's the end of the month, so this is relevant

also look at the other charts!  Perfect back test and rejection on the IWM and RUT

here's an interesting chart

SPX 60 min chart setting and video

Here's a chart example that I will have in tonight's Newsletter which will be posted later.  However I also made a quick video to go over it:  The contains a MACD, 13/34 EMA, custom Histogram, 60 period stochastics etc.  One thing that stands out to me is the trendline and the Fibonacci retracements.  Notice that the last pullbacks all retraced slightly more than 61.8% from the previous low, if this were to occur again, the SPX would go to about the uptrend line

VIDEO - 60 min chart setting

here's the dynamic charts:

SPX 60 min setting - for Stockchart members

for non-Stockchart members, cut and paste the following URL into your browser

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=60&yr=0&mn=2&dy=14&i=p10972496968&a=161963261&r=8430

Here's the Stockcharts Equivalent. 

SPX daily with GE comparison

Here\'s an interesting chart

Wow, here\'s an interesting chart of GE with the SPX.  Notice how divergence in GE have correlated so well with tops and bottoms in the market! Almost uncanny, it\'s almost like GE is a MACD indicator lol

Weekend Newsletter Part 2 Commodities

Steve will post his shortly

US Dollar 240 min furtures (symbol DX)

OK, don't ask why I'm up, couldn't sleep, anyway here's a 240 min US Dollar Futures chart.  As you can see, a very nice bull wedge is developing.  Also as we know, it's 'all about the Dollar'!  Therefore we need to keep an eye on this, if the Dollar rallies out of this wedge, the market will react negatively.

Anyway, I need some sleep, going back to bed, let's see what MSFT reports in the morning, and of course, what the Dollar does.

Gold/SPX ratios - triangle forming!

Gold/SPX ratio - triangle forming - if the ratio breaks out of the triangle to the upside, it would be bullish for gold!

Gold chart with the Gold/SPX ratio at the top, draw trendlines on the ratio

Here's the trendling indicators and charts, I get asked about these all the times for chart URL's, so here you go

SPX daily - Arroon, trendlines, etc

NAUD chart

NAAD weekly - follow trendlines

NYSI - CCI 13 above -100 and below 100 and the price

Comoodities had a good day

DBC - general commodities ETF

DBA - Agriculture ETF

RJA - Agriculture ETF

Some chart

Here are the 1X Short ETF\'s that I\'m keeping my eye on for when the market indexes put in 5th wave tops.  I like the 1X ETF\'s because they should not degrade as much as the 2X and 3X ETF\'s and thus could be held for longer periods of time for swings.

Let the market put in a top instead of trying to pick a top.  I\'ve listed thee criteria on the chats to look for:  1. 60 period stochastics. 2. Aroon  3.  50 day MA and trendlines of the bull wedges.

SH daily chart

DOG daily chart

PSQ daily chart

Also keep an eye on these long term trending indicators for a reversal as well:

NAAD Cumulative chart

NYSI Cumulative chart

Thursday October 8th Market Recap

1. Market Analysis

2. Trending Indicators

3. Commodities, Gold and Precious Metals and US Dollar

The US Dollar futures look awful.  Looks like gold will probably have another pop in the morning.  Also Gold looks like a bull flag/pennant on the 60 min chart.

Some Long ideas

PANL - resistance is trendline

VG - only for the most aggressive

SWM - bo over 57.5

AMZN - bo over 94.5

The triangle is a little more well-defined now, otherwise it's been a choppy morning

SPX 5 min with Tick dynamic

GDX 15 min comments

Here\'s the 15 min GDX chart, looks like it could chop around a little bit and form a small triangle or pennant first and then move higher

Market Observation

Here's the daily SPX 500 daily chart.  The SPX bounced perfect off the 50 day MA last week on Friday and held the linear uptrend line.  Stochastics is oversold and therefore has plenty of room to move up if it wants to.  If this pattern is correct, then this was a 4th wave pullback with another 5th wave move to new highs coming. 

In the very short term, the 'ke' pivots are 1040 and 1018 for support, and 1060 for the bulls.

Next, here's a 5 min chart of the SPX, it's potentially a bullish inverse H&S pattern.  The pattern is 40 points in height and would measure to about 1100.  The neckline is 1060.

Comments on Gold and Gold stocks

Obviously one heck of a rally today in gold and gold stocks and nice follow through on yesterday morning\'s buy signal in the GDX/GLD ratio.

Some intra day comments, gold stocks have come a long way a, however they appear to be consolidating and forming a bull flags on the 5 min chart, therefore I would not be surprised to see them rally again in the afternoon or in the morning. Therefore, keep an eye on the larger cap gold stocks as they tend to follow the GDX well. 

Also, while many gold stocks have broke out to new highs and the gold stocks that I mentioned yesterday have done well (HL, NG, GDX, GG are doing well), however here\'s a few that have not yet taken out their highs, below are the dynamic URL\'s, just click to open

GSS - bo over 3.71

GFI

EGO

Quck Comments on gold stocks

A few comments about gold stocks:  The US Dollar is weak and as a result, gold metal is up as well as gold stocks:

Here\'s the daily chart of GLD, so far it has formed a higher low, let\'s see if it can move up from here and make new highs.  GLD and DGP are on the watch list, stops go just below the higher low that was formed last week. GLD dynamic chart

Next, here\'s the 15 min GDX chart, the ratio crossed in the trendline in the morning as well as the 60 period stochastics, I have drawn a new uptrend line on the ratio

Next, here\'s the 60 min GDX chart, one thing I want to point out however is that volume is not impressive on this move and it\'s still below the downtrend line, therefore if you are long gold stocks, still use some caution and keep an eye on this

here\'s a couple of other charts:  GDX daily chart is still potentially in some kind of bull wedge pattern, watch the downtrend over the ratio. GDX dynamic chart

here\'s some individual gold stocks:

HL, bounced off support last week, watch the downtrend line on the HL/GLD ratio as well, stochastics are also oversold. HL dynamic chart

NG - the consolidating volume suggests a bull flag wedge pattern, watch the trendline of the wedge as well as the downtrend line over the NG/GLD ratio. Stochastics are nearing oversold.  NG dynamic chart

In short, keep an eye on the volume, that needs to increase, if you own any gold stocks, have a stop in place or use the ratio to help define entries and exits, the 15 and 60 min GDX chart works fairly well for this.  

Gold stocks are also moving somewhat with the general stock market (SPX), therefore if the market continues to recover, then gold stocks probably will do so as well, but if today\'s up move in the general market is simply an oversold bounce (remember SPX 1041.2 is the major resistance), and the market heads back down again, gold stocks could get dragged down as well.  Currently on the watch list, we still have GLD and DGP with stops. 

Thursday October 1st Market Recap - in video format

I had to save the video in windows media format because I was having issue with Flash, therefore if you are having problems viewing this video through your browser, then play it through your windows media player directly

here's the URL to the for playing in windows media player directly.

http://bpt-videos.s3.amazonaws.com/marketoct0109/marketoct0109_media/marketoct0109.wmv

For those of you who have MAC's, you might need to download something to play the windows media player on your mac, here's some URLs I saw from a google search

http://www.apple.com/downloads/macosx/video/windowsmediaplayerformacosx.html

http://www.ofzenandcomputing.com/zanswers/175

since it's now Oct 1st, the 20 month SPX chart is relevant.

NAAD cumulative

the NAAD cumulative chart closed near the uptrend line, therefore it's near a major breakpoint.

JNK possible long term swing short

Here's the chart of JNK which Steve has been discussing in his updates, it could become a long term swing trade short, Oct 1st: Strong move down on very strong volume. 

Basically you could short here with a stop just above the highs, you risk only about $1. 

30 year Interest Rates T-Bond Yield

here's a chart of $TYX 30 year rates.  As you can see, major support is approaching.  The point is, the market is at a breakpoint here, the bulls need to step in here, if the market is going to bounce, this is the place to do it and for rates to bounce.  Now if that support is lost for the $TYX, it would be bearish

SPX 60 min with 233 CCI - comments

Since there has been some discussion on the blog regarding my 60 min SPX chart with the 233 CCI.  I've discussed this chart before; it has been a good trendling indicator for catching major trends when the 233 CCI goes below zero along with Aroon crossovers.  It's not perfect as it can whipsaw from time to time, but when it works it catches the big trend. 

Here's the updated chart, as you can see the 233 CCI is now right at the zero level.  Also the SPX is right on the 233 EMA.  Therefore via this trending indicator, it's close to a breakpoint.  Also Aroon indicator at the top tends to cross around the same time as the 233 CCI, which is not close yet, but sometimes it's a few days late. here's a dynamic chart as well

SPX 60 min dynamic chart with 233 CCI

and here's one for non-stockchart members:

SPX 60 min chart for non stockchart members - click the link and a page will show up that says, please visit
stockcharts.com, however ignore that message, then click on the URL and
hit refresh and the chart will show up.

Gold Stocks from Last Night\'s Update

Gold rallied $15 today and gold stocks rallied as well.  Here's the 60 min GDX chart, the ratio stayed on a buy signal all day.  Keep an eye on the uptrend line on the GDX/GLD ratio; I'll of course post it in real time on the Blog/Trading Community during the day.

Also here's the gold stocks that I had in last night's update, yes it was a volatile day, but the golds stocks did well overall and closed up on strong volume.  Many of the gold stocks could have been bought during the day on the pullback for better prices instead of the morning gap up.  Let's see if they follow through tomorrow. 

Message sent from the BPT Blog/Trading Community

Trade Ideas

Here's some individual trade ideas, just click on the chart URL's below

KSS - Long, bo over 56.65

CLF - Long, bull flag

MA - Short, bear flag see comments

COST - Short, see comments

COF - Short, see comments

TXN - Short, see comments

Gold Stocks

ANV - bo over 9.9, bull rectangle

BVN - bo over 35.10, bull rectangle

GG - see comments

AU - see comment

CDE - see chart

XRA - bull flag, see comments

AUY - see comment

Some charts