Hello everyone, 2012 is about to close out for good and I hope everyone of you has had a very good year! I have enjoyed providing useful and insightful market analysis and commentary for you all year long, hopefully you have as well.
Here's our last two weekend newsletters for 2012:
- Commodity Weekend Newsletter Sunday Dec 30th
- General Market Weekend Newsletter Sunday Dec 30th, 2012
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I posted this chart a couple weeks back in mid Dec before Christmas (see my post from Dec 19th) how there was an obvious negative divergence between the market S&P 500 and the NYAD NYSE Advance Decline issues indicator. As you can see from the history, this divergence has been a good predictor of market pullbacks - now obviously we have the Fiscal Cliff fiasco in Washington with our idiot politicians as a major new catalyst, however the chart was also setup for a pullback well ahead of this.
At Breakpoint Trades we have a lot of custom indicators, charts, systems like this one to help you out with our trading
On Sunday night, congress meets again for the Fiscal Cliff, let's see what the 'yahoo's do, obviously the market will likely gap one way or the other on Monday morning.
Have a great weekend guys!
It looks like several of my RSI 2 market systems will go long today as long as RSI 2 stays oversold below 10%. Here's some statistics and charts.
Also I have a strategy on the ETF DVY, which is the DJ Select Dividend ETF, pretty good stats with an 11 PF and 89% winning trades.
However again, realize that this is news driven market - so keep that in mind, I'm posting these charts as information purposes only
$GOLD - Chart Link - as you know, gold is down big today, -$29 currently. Per my weekend analysis, here's the symmetry chart (please be aware this chart still shows yesterday's closing prices). Gold is currently trading at 1670, so it's just above above all these moving averages. Also refer to the time frame of this consolidation, it's 16 months, the other two lasted 16.5 months and 17.5 months. Will the MA's hold or not?
$GOLD - Chart Link - anther daily gold chart with the wave count that I've been showing, as I have been discussing, if this is a wave (2) and wave C, then we can expect the Nov low to be undercut at least slightly
GLD - Chart Link - here's the ETF, steve made this chart up, shows a symmetry projection to the downside
remember the gold charts at Stockcharts don't update until well after the market close.
Hello everyone, as you know, the market had a big rally today, therefore here's my most recent comprehensive newsletter on the market, AAPL, bonds/Rates, GDX, Energy, and tons and tons of trade ideas.
also please consider taking advantage of our 25% coupon, this expires on Jan 1st. Our membership rates will be going up next year, so now is a good time to take advantage of our special!
The first chart shows a linear chart of AAPL, an uptrend line is in the upper $400's
the second chart shows a logarithmic chart, there is basically an uptrend line right in this area, if this is lost, then the uptrend line on the linear chart will likely be tested - honestly I wouldn't mind that as I think it would finally be a low risk buy
the third chart shows a weekly log chart going back 11 years, there\'s an uptrend line from 2003 that comes in the mid to upper 400\'s as well basically matching the daily linear chart above.
Yesterday I posted a 60 min chart of the S&P 500, I showed how it stopped exactly at resistance (see the downtrend line with red arrows) and had also formed into a bear wedge pattern. Here's the original post from yesterday.
As you can see with today's sell off the wedge is playing out and gave folks an early warning sign to lighten up on Longs or even take a short position.
$SPX - Chart Link - here's a 3 min chart of the major indexes, one thing that is useful for day traders is to look for intra day divergences where one of the indexes makes a higher high but the others do not, and vice versa. Generally the Nasdaq and RUT leads, so for example today while the SPX made a higher high, the fact that the RUT and Nasdaq didn't was a warning. The same thing works for bottom i.e. if the SPX makes a lower low but the NDX and RUT make higher lows, that's a positive sign.
you can use this Stockchart URL going forward
Nice bounce so far for GDX and GDXJ, though GDX is still below the downtrend line so it has work to do, however last week we started pointing out that Bollinger Band W bottom scenario possibility as price had closed below the lower BB's in mid Nov but failed to do so on the new low in early Dec, and so far it has played out for a bounce anyway
also here's the education examples from Stockcharts.com
$SPX - Chart Link - this was posted on our live blog this morning as you can see the market popped up after the FED meeting, but pulled back - see where it stopped? logically right at the downtrend line from early Oct. Now watch the potential wedge pattern
Hello everyone, here's our most recent newsletter covering the general market, some commodities, and of course tons of trade ideas, we've had a lot of really great trade ideas that have done well, here's the newsletter
Here's a link to our Comprehensive Commodity Newsletter, make sure to check it!
Commodity Newsletter - Precious Metals, crude oil, energy stocks, mechanical systems etc
As you know, AAPL has had a nice correction since the September highs when it hit $700 a share. At the time we pointed out the negative divergence in place via the MACD.
In mid November AAPL bounced along with the general market, however it stopped dead at the 200 day MA and today AAPL lost about -6.5% which was the biggest down day in years on a percentage basis.
The second chart shows a 60 min chart, notice the bear wedge that had setup with negative divergence. One target to watch on this downside would be a fill of that gap below which is 528.9 - 539.9, at minimum I think that gap will be filled.
The third chart shows a weekly chart of AAPL. Note the long term uptrend line back to 2003.
As you know, I've shown various tips and tricks for you guys to add to your traders toolbox, I've shown alternative methods to using indicators by looking for a confirmed cross for MACD, moving averages, RSI etc, however here's something that you might not have thought of, I call it the Kiss method, and this video will be how to use it for the MACD. Most traders use MACD to either point out divergence, or to look for crossovers, however this is an alternative method that I came up with where instead of looking for crossovers, you take very low risk trades when the MACD touch one other or kiss. This is akin to buying support or selling resistance because your stops can be extremely tight - i.e. stop out if the MACD actually crosses. This method doesn't happen that often, however the nice thing about it is that it works on any stock or index and any time frame.
Here's a 6 min video I made on this method, as well as example charts
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Here's three daily charts of the S&P 500, as you know the market had a nice rally off the mid Nov lows a few weeks back, however notice where the market stopped yesterday, it stopped dead a the 50 day MA! This was a logical place to exit longs or even take a low risk short with a tight stop. The first chart shows the reversal off the 50 MA, the second chart shows a small wedge pattern, while the last chart shows a higher level the market may try to hit should the 50 MA be broken.
A bullish scenario would have the market pulling back to form a RS of an inverse H&S pattern, however this would take at least a week or so since, so at best expect some chop in the market for the next week, at worst a decent top has been put in, however we are in the bullish time of year, so for now I favor some kind of higher low being established over the next week or two, we'll see...
Hello everyone, here's tonight's newsletters, as always I cover the general market and a few commodities, however the vast majority of the newsletter is spent on trade ideas, so please check them out!
best to your week!
Matthew Frailey
Just got through looking through 1000 charts, here's a bunch of trade ideas
since I have so many trade ideas this evening, I'll keep the rest of the newsletter short
$SPX - Chart Link - nice pop on that pennant via the 5 min chart
$SPX - Chart Link - 60 min chart shows an inverse H&S pattern, perhaps this can play out, however too early to tell.
$SPX - Chart Link - however remember that a good move up might only be a wave C, we'll see...
IWM - Chart Link - to along with the Russell 2000 chart below, you can see this perfect kiss of the downtrend line which occurred yesterday, provided a low risk short
As you know the market rebounded off the lows a couple weeks ago, which was logical given the fact that several of our market breadth indicators like the NYMO, NAMO, RHCOMPQ, NYLOW were at extreme levels (see my prior posts from below to see these indicators). Now that the market has bounced, it went too far too quickly and looks like it may want to pull in some here.
The first chart shows a daily chart of the Russell 2000, we showed this to members yesterday, notice how the candlestick exactly tagged the downtrend line, that marked resistance and a low risk short with a tight stop. Now we'll see if price can form a higher low on a pullback or not.
The second chart shows the RHCOMPQ market breadth indicator, which had spiked down to 5% two weeks ago, and subsequently the market bounced afterwards. However notice that many times this indicator has two spike lows before a good bottom is in (not always but many times it does). If this were to occur again, then expect another market pullback to form either a higher low or a lower low.
Again the easy long trade was 2 weeks ago when the indicators were at extreme levels, now we'll see where this pullback takes us, stay tuned...
Late last week on Thursday and Friday I posted charts of the NYLOW and NAMO and NYMO market breadth indicators, which had spiked to levels generally associated with some kind of tradeable bottom - as you know so far we've had a nice rally off the lows, especially on Monday.
The first chart below shows the NYLOW indicator, as of Thur/Fri last week it had a large spike up, which as you can see generally marketed at least a short term tradeable bottom - basically the rubber band got too stretched and was due to snap back, or a reversion to the mean.
The second chart below is a daily S&P 500 chart, last Friday the S&P 500 closed well off the lows to form a hammer reversal candlestick and note that it logically occurred right off the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. The next major resistance for the S&P 500 is the 20 day MA and of course the think blue horizontal line between 1403 - 1405, this is an area to watch for a potential pullback again.
The third chart is a 60 min SPX chart, note the bull wedge that had formed at Friday's lows last week - next resistance are the Fibs and the downtrend lines.
And lastly the 4th chart shows a 15 min chart of the S&P 500, if the market has put in a low, one bullish pattern that could set up is an inverse H&S pattern, currently the RS is developing, but still too early to say for sure and anything goes at this point.
Otherwise congrats to anyone who went long Thur or Friday last week for a tradeable bounce!
If you like our charts and analysis, please consider signing up to our website, also ask about our 25% coupon end of year special!!
Happy Thanksgiving!!
BPT
