Hello everyone, I hope you had a nice weekend! In response to my charts of NEM below, here's my weekly commodity newsletter, in this letter I give a big emphasis on gold stocks
Commodity Newsletter from Breakpoint Trades
best to your week!
Matthew Frailey
Nice bounce in gold stocks finally today, honestly it was about time and long over due, here's a look at NEM:
The first chart shows a big picture weekly chart, as you can see it bounced off the trendline from the 2000 lows, also take note of the RSI indicator at the top, it rarely get's oversold on the weekly and this time it had divergence to boot.
The second chart shows another weekly chart, which shows the divergence via the RSI a little better, however note the hammer candlestick which occurred this week, and NEM hit a measured move target
The third chart shows a daily chart with a well defined channel, while the last chart shows a 60 min view
Hello everyone, as you know the market is once again up nicely today at least so far. This update however is on the SPY RSI 2 and SPX Ver 2 systems, which took long positions last week at the close of Thursday and Friday. Congrats to anyone who took the system trades as they are now nicely profitable.
**CLICK HERE** for a quick video overview
SPY RSI 2 system:
This system took a 60% long position last week at Thursday's close and a 40% position at Friday's close for a 100% position. This system will exit its trade today at the close and go to cash if SPY closes above the 9 day simple moving average. Currently the 9 SMA is at a price of $161.06, while SPY is at $161.60, which is well above the 9 SMA, however it's the close that matters. I will send out a verification email near or at the close of the day for confirmation - however it's this simple, if SPY closes over the 9 SMA, the system will sell its long position and go to cash for a nice winning trade!
SPX Ver 2 system:
This system took a long position last week on Thursday the close of 100% (the system does not scale in). The trade rules are identical for the SPX Ver 2 and SPY Ver 2 systems, however the SPY Ver 2 system didn't take a position last week because of the inherit differences between SPY and SPX such as gaps, indicators, price etc.
However please note that unlike the SPY RSI 2 system, this system is NOT going to exit its long position, one of its trending indicators was triggered which will allow the system to hold this trade for a longer period of time, hopefully for higher prices.
Make sure to watch the short video that I posted above. Remember these systems are listed in the Tradestation Systems section of website where you can view detailed trade statistics, performance reports, and rules. When the systems take or exit a trade, I update this section about 10 - 15 min after the market closes.
If you took these trades per the systems, congrats as they are nicely profitable, otherwise trade them as you see fit, make your own trading decisions.
Here's our to very comprehensive newsletters, you'll be amazed at the detail please take the time to review them both
1. U.S. Market and World Market Newsletter
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some observations:
1. Nearing the up trendline from 2000
2. The correction from 2008 was 71% from the highs, the current correction so far has been 65%, however this current correction has been going on for over 1 /1/2 years whereas the one in 2008 was only just over 6 months
3. The weekly 14 RSI became much more oversold this time than in 2008 or 2000, however now some positive divergence exists. The monthly 14 RSI appears similar to the RSI from 2000.
Regarding the GDX RSI 2, the system will look to exit the trade whenever the RSI 2 Close is back above 80%, unless my custom momentum indicator turns green, which the system would then hold the trade via until the momentum indicator turned red.
I'm posting this information, because some of you asked me questions and I thought I should post my responce publically. I don't list this as an official mechanical system of the website in the Tradestation systems section of the website, but I had posted it a while back because back in early April when the RSI 2 had closed below 1% on GDX - and at that time I ran my system to find the probability of a bounce.
Though as you can see, most of the trades did take some initial heat even though every one of them eventually closed out profitably
Today was a total bloodbath for the market, especially for precious metals.
Here's my comprehensive newsletter review of today's action, please take the time to review because I discuss the daily and also the very short term view of the market, and I also take a look at commodities and some custom powerful indicators that are disposal
Hello Everyone, as you know if today was an absolute bloodbath for the market. Regarding my previous email on the SPY mechanical systems, the SPY Pro and SPY Ver 2 Systems will not be taken along trade today because one of my filters was hit, that causes the system to look for lower prices.
However, the RSI 2 spy system will be taking an initial long trade at the close of the day of 60% of an initial position, it wouldn't take another 40% at better prices future date if that occurs. I will discuss all this in tonight's newsletter.
CLICK HERE To Watch A Video Overview
I noticed a LOT of posts about Gold on the blog. We trade GC futures in the Futures trading room and we don't care if it goes up or down just so long as it moves a specified number of ticks in the same direction. Most trades are less than 90 seconds.
Even though it was straight down (well, almost) today, we had an equal number of long and short trades.
Total Trade signals today were 60 - yeah - a lot of trading, with an even 80% win rate netting you in excess of $2400 per contract.
Those interested in taking advantage of this market regardless of the long term outlook, or better yet, confusion, really should get in touch with Matt or Myself about the futures trading program.
$SPX - Chart Link - as noted yesterday - stopped at the 61.8% fib
$SPX - Chart Link - 15 min view, once it lost those uptrend lines the selling intensified
LEE was a trade idea in last nights newsletter, I hope some of you caught it! Yesterday of course AMCC was the big winner
Hear's one of our trade ideas from last night, wow what a move!! and mini of our members caught this one.
Intraday video update and observations on the market, trade ideas etc
*CLICK HERE* to watch the video
Matt
as you know it's easier for me to make videos than type a bunch of text
*click here* to watch the video
remember, the BPT Breadth Thrust indicator what is oversold last Wednesday. Currently the S&P 500 is finding logical resistance at the middle Bollinger Band, which is the same as the 20 day moving average
You can view the Newsletter here
hello
everyone and happy Fathers day, here's the weekend commodity
newsletter, this one is a bit longer than normal as I discuss quite a
bit Administration comments.
Hello all dedicated readers of my blog, apologize for my lack of posts for the last few days, however I recently broke my left wrist quite severely, and just had major surgery. As you can imagine I have taken a break from the computer and it is also extremely difficult to type. However please stay tuned and keep my blog bookmarked
as a follow up confirmation The SPY Pro and SPY Ver2 systems both exited there long positions today at the market open and the trade station systems section has now been updated to reflect this
Great day for the mechanical systems, the SPY RSI 2, SPY VER 2, and SPY Pro systems, even the XLE system.
Remember, the SPY RSI 2 system excited today at the close, I have updated the website statistics to reflect this. The SPY VER 2, and SPY Pro systems systems will exit on Monday morning.
**CLICK HERE** to watch the video
Matthew Frailey
$SPX - Chart Link - as you can see perfect rally off the uptrend line that we showed before
$SPX - Chart Link - 2 hour chart showing the same uptrend line
$NAMO - Chart Link - our custom NAMO indicator worked again beautifully, which as you can see gave a buy signal on Wednesday
Hello everyone, as you know the market had a large move today to the downside and has had a nice correctly the last couple weeks - here's our in-depth technical analysis on the market in newsletter form
**CLICK HERE**To View the Newsletter
Best to your week, Matthew Frailey
Hello everyone, as you know the market had a very strong pullback today, can't say we were surprised. The S&P 500 lost 22 1/2 points while the Dow Jones lost 217 points.
Here's a few charts that we are following:
The first chart shows a daily S&P 500 chart, as you can see the uptrend line from the November lows is fast approaching, should it fail to hold, the next major support areas are shown in green.
The second chart shows a 2 hr chart of the S&P for a closer view
The third chart shows a 30 min Diamond pattern, which is now into it's projected target zone.
The last chart shows another 30 min chart of the S&P with our favored Elliot Wave count structure on the chart - if this is the correct count, then a bounce from here would only represent a 4th wave bounce which still needs another decline in wave 5 to complete.
I will remain cautious until evidence changes. Not looking to pick exact bottoms for swings. With that said, the indexes are quite oversold and thus one must be prepared for a bounce attempt.
