Wednesday, May 1, 2013

Comments on Gold and GDX

Gold is down over -$27 this morning, it was logically rejected at the 20 day MA and GLD exactly filled the gap.  The bounce off the lows was quite V-ish, therefore some backfill is only logical, now can it form a higher low or not? See the first two charts of GLD.

Regarding GDX, it's off the lows from a couple weeks ago however the advance has been choppy, that's why we always tell our members to get out of the habit of trying to pick exact tops and bottoms for stocks and the market, because even if you catch it, generally price goes through fits and starts and chop, which can make traders very emotional (and emotion is the enemy with trading), and let's face it who catches the exact top or bottom the first time, no one.  

It's best to treat them as short term trades, then establish swing trades after a higher low has been established so that you can place a logical stop - then once it starts trending it's much easier.  

The 'Pros' make their money by playing the trend, NOT by picking tops and bottoms, that's for the amateurs or novice traders, who end up getting stopped out 10 - 20 times before catching a top or bottom and by the time they finally catch it, they are an emotional mess, plus their accounts are decimated - that's why we teach to avoid that mess.

Anyway I got long winded there, otherwise for GDX, note my 60 min chart, there is an uptrend line from the lows, yesterday it was defended and once again today on the pullback GDX is retesting this trendline - let's see if it holds

Remember there is a lot of market moving news: we have the FOMC later today, the ECB tomorrow, and the big Jobs report on Friday

take care and good trading!

Matthew Frailey

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